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BTC Bitcoin is once again approaching a critical level that has repeatedly hindered its recovery: US$80,000
On Monday, Bitcoin trading prices hovered above US$77,000, still below the psychological level of US$80,000 and the recent three-month highs of US$82,000. This makes the next breakthrough attempt particularly critical. (Bitcoin has tested the $80,000 level this month, but the rally failed to maintain as interest rate hikes expectations returned.)
What will happen after exceeding US$80,000?
The first challenge will come almost immediately. Recent market analysis pointed out that there are large supply orders for bitcoin between US$81,000 and US$86,000, and those holders who buy at higher prices may take advantage of the market rebound to sell.
This paints a relatively clear path:
- Bear scenario (US$72,000-US$75,000): encounters another rejection and a deeper correction.
- Baseline scenario (US$76,000-US$80,000): Range volatility trading continues.
- Bullish scenario (US$82,000-US$86,000): successfully resisted selling pressure from above and achieved a breakthrough.
- A complete breakthrough (above US$86,000): US$90,000 will be the next major target.
Therefore, just standing up to $80,000 is not enough. Not only does Bitcoin need to hold that level, it must also push prices across the heavier supply area above.
If Bitcoin effectively clears the $86,000 resistance, the road to $90,000 will become much smoother.
ETF demand is no longer reliable
Institutional demand no longer provides as clear public support as before. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted nearly $1 billion in weekly net inflows earlier this month when Bitcoin prices were hovering around $80,000. However, this momentum quickly reversed. As of September 10, these funds recorded a one-day net outflow of approximately $283 million, continuing a multi-day trend of withdrawals.
This means that the next $80,000 breakthrough may not be supported by strong ETF funds as in early September. If the bitcoin price breaks through US$80,000 and the flow of funds turns positive again, the credibility of this breakthrough will be greatly increased.
Is the $90,000 goal realistic?
Yes, but $80,000 is only the first hurdle. Bitcoin still needs to break its recent high of $82,000 and cross the broader supply area of $81,000 to $86,000.
Downside risks are equally important. Technical support is at the mid-low level of $75,000, while the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) is close to the low level of $73,000.
The current situation is set very clearly:
- Above US$80,000: Pay close attention to the US$82,000 range.
- Above US$86,000: The US$90,000 goal becomes realistic and feasible.
- Below US$75,000: Risk shifts to around US$73,000 support.
