比特币在77,100美元以下出现抄底买入，但现货需求滞后：Bitfinex

Bitcoin fell below the US$77,100 mark and futures bulls rebuilt their positions

Bitcoin fell 3.2% to close at US$75,702 after losing support in the US$77,100 range. Despite weak U.S. spot demand, futures market data shows traders are re-establishing long positions.

Price movements and key points

Bitcoin closed below US$77,100 for the third consecutive trading day, and the US$73,500 support level may be retested in the future. As prices showed a peak-to-trough fluctuation of 3.5% on September 15, the global open interest in bitcoin futures fell by US$1.7 billion, and then rose to US$52.15 billion early the next morning. The previous open interest amount was $52.1 billion, meaning that despite the price decline, total futures exposure was still slightly above previous levels.

Bitcoin had been trading between US$77,100 and US$81,300 for 24 days starting August 21, but broke downward before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Tuesday's closing price sent BTC down 3.2% and below its low of $76,043 after the August consumer price index report. This was the third time in six transactions that it closed below $77,100, activating the downward path noted in Bitfinex's previous report. Analysts said BTC may now revisit the $73,500, the average cost basis for investors holding it for three to six months.

report notes that only a rebound above US$77,100 will weaken this scenario when spot trading volume increases.

Derivatives Markets: Long covering and non-surrender repairs

衍生品交易员最初在下跌期间减少了敞口，但很快重返市场。Bitfinex Alpha在9月16日的市场更新中指出，即使现货市场数据表明在前一区间底部以下的需求有限，比特币交易者仍通过永续合约买入了跌幅。

资金费率保持正值，但未达到Bitfinex认为过热的水准。交易员继续增加多头敞口，而比特币形成了更低的高点和更低的低点。“随着资金费率保持正值（尽管不过热），即使价格继续以更低的高点和更低的低点下跌，多头正在被重新添加。”Bitfinex Alpha告诉媒体。

分析师称，未平仓合约的恢复不同于投降事件，在投降事件中，资金费率通常转为负值，交易员关闭杠杆头寸。此类事件通常导致未平仓合约急剧下降，而不是快速重建。聚合累计成交量差额（衡量买卖双方市价订单）也显示，在比特币失去77,100美元支撑后，买方主动交易活动增加。正向的价格变动伴随着正向的资金费率和上升的未平仓合约，报告将其描述为永续市场的逢低买入行为。

Liquidation still removes some leverage from the market. On September 15, approximately $571 million of long positions in cryptocurrency assets were liquidated, compared with approximately $100 million of short positions. Bitcoin and Ethereum each accounted for approximately $190 million of the total long liquidations. This is the largest long liquidation event since August 22. In an early test of $77,100 on September 10, total liquidations reached $562 million, of which long positions accounted for 86%.

Weak spot demand and ETF outflows

Although futures traders increased their exposure, Bitfinex found less buying pressure in the spot market. Coinbase's spot discount widened from 0.03% on Monday to 0.08% at the opening of September 16, indicating that demand on U.S. exchanges is weaker than other trading venues. The discount was the deepest since August 15, when Bitcoin traded below $65,000 before subsequent gains.

According to Bitfinex, passive buying absorbed some of the recent ETF sell-off, but buyers did not show enough urgency to bring Bitcoin back above $77,000. On Tuesday, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $450.4 million. Fidelity's FBTC lost $214.8 million, while BlackRock's IBIT recorded $161.7 million in redemptions. The two funds together accounted for 84% of the total for the day.

This outflow is the 33rd largest single-day outflow since the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024. Bitfinex also listed it as the 14th largest single-day withdrawals in 2026. Demand for ETFs was stronger in early September. For the week ended September 4, the funds attracted net inflows of $986.7 million, of which BlackRock's Bitcoin products accounted for approximately $691.5 million. As a result, Tuesday's sales reversed some of the institutional support that had previously helped keep BTC in the August-September range. Bitfinex said ETF traffic should now provide clearer readings of institutional positioning than options markets.

Recent increase in buyer supply and the macro environment

As Bitcoin fell below its trading range, short-term holders provided another source of selling. The amount of coins held for less than 155 days flowing into the exchange rose from approximately 19,400 BTC to 33,100 BTC on Tuesday. Of these totals, 23,200 BTC reached the exchange at a loss, the highest amount in a month. The same group had loss-making deposits on major offshore spot exchanges reaching 8,260 BTC, the largest reading since August 11, when Bitcoin trading approached $64,000.

Deposits flowing into U.S. institutional products, including ETFs and investment packaging, remain around the typical 7,300 BTC. Bitfinex attributed the additional exchange inflows to recent buyers holding retail-sized positions rather than institutional investors. Affected groups purchased 1.23 million bitcoins between $77,100 and $81,300 in the first three weeks. As bitcoin is traded below the zone, the coins held by this group are now at an unrealized loss.

随着挂单消失，下跌加速。周二UTC时间18:30至18:45之间，比特币下跌了约1,100美元，尽管Bitfinex上的净主动交易量几乎为零，这表明买家撤回了限价单，而不是卖家积极打击买单。这一举动与参议院CLARITY法案 cloture 投票失败同时发生。此前crypto.news报道，该动议获得50票赞成和49票反对，距离开启辩论所需的60票还差10票。

技术支持位分析

Bitfinex将第一个支撑区域设定在74,985美元至75,412美元之间，结合了周二的低点、Strategy的平均比特币购买价格以及此前位于75,000美元至76,000美元之间的清算集群。报告显示，Strategy持有845,050枚BTC，平均成本为75,412美元。周二的低点跌破了该公司的成本基础，然后比特币收盘时高出约0.4%。

Bitfinex表示，为了支撑区域得以维持，ETF流量需要稳定，且9月18日到期、行权价为75,000美元的期权未平仓合约需保持在可控范围内。在该区域持续跌破后将暴露出三至六个月持有者的73,500美元成本基础。在73,500美元以下，报告确定71,300美元为短期持有者实现价格。该水平也靠近一个包含近35万枚BTC成本基础集中的70,000美元至71,500美元成交量节点。

A return to the range of $62,500 to $71,000 in the first quarter would have a more serious impact under Bitfinex's model. Analysts said a close within that band would signal a return to a bear market regime rather than a temporary correction in the post-August structure.

Options traders paid more for downside protection after the Fed meeting. The amount of open interest due on September 18 rose 22% in a week, calls increased 30%, and puts increased 12%. Longer-term 25-delta risk reversals move toward puts during September, October and December maturities.

Prior to the decision, Bitfinex's earlier analysis identified huge clearing areas around $76,000 and $82,000. The lower clusters have been tested, with positions over $500 million liquidated around $75,000 to $76,000. Bitcoin's 10-day correlation with the S & P 500 rose to 0.76 from 0.20 on September 11, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 increased to 0.66 from 0.15. During the same period, its correlation with gold dropped from 0.79 to 0.51. From September 8 to September 15, Bitcoin fell 3.7% as the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.8% to 5%. The inflation-adjusted 10-year yield closed at 2.62%, improving the available return on U.S. government debt, while Bitcoin continued to trade as a non-yielding asset.