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BTC 比特币突破85,000美元关口，宏观压力缓解与空头清算推动上涨
根据CoinGecko的数据，比特币在周一攀升至85,111美元的高点，24小时内涨幅达5.7%，并成功突破了此前测试一周的阻力区间。
Nexo分析师Iliya Kalchev告诉Decrypt，在一周内，比特币吸收了美联储加息、日本银行将利率上调至31年高位，以及参议院拒绝《Clarity法案》等多重冲击，且在整个过程中从未有意义地跌破75,000美元大关。此后，外部压力有所缓解。中东原油出口表现优于预期，布伦特原油价格降至半月低点；交易员开始定价本周联合国大会上美伊会谈的前景，美中官员也在纽约会面，为9月24日的特朗普-习特会奠定基础。
债券市场的影响更为显著。受油价和通胀数据仍远高于美联储2%目标的影响，美国10年期国债收益率在9月14日触及5.014%，创下2023年10月以来的新高，并在决策当日再次飙升至5%以上。随后收益率曲线全面回落，10年期收益率接近4.93%，2年期收益率为4.67%，投资者认为Warsh对通胀的关注是可信的。
"This rate hike, which is fully in line with expectations, removes a certain degree of uncertainty," said Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey. He called a clearer macro picture a "necessary prerequisite" for Bitcoin's rise. He believes that most of the de-risk behavior occurred before the Federal Reserve resolution and the Clarity Act vote, thus forming a market pattern of "buying rumors and selling news."
Shorts suffered heavy losses. According to CoinGlass data, in the past 24 hours,$648 million of the $770 million positions on the market were liquidated, all from short positions. Kalchev pointed out that as prices rebounded above $80,000, short positions in Bitcoin of more than $230 million were cleared within a single trading day. Sun said spot buying then cleared resistance around $82,000, triggering further stop-loss orders, and these forced purchases pushed prices above $84,000. Bitcoin has also regained its 50-week moving average.
A report by Glassnode and Bybit found that the rebound trend in August this year was the same. In five days, Bitcoin rose 24.6%, while active leverage fell 12.6%, and short positions accounted for 89% of each liquidation amount.
Kalchev said that those wallets that continued to sell throughout August turned into net buyers at the end of the month, and as of September 20, their single-day increase in holdings reached the fastest level in several weeks. When the price broke through $80,000, spot trading volume also flipped from net sell to net buy.
一项衡量卖家抛售力度的Glassnode指标在9月初飙升，但到9月20日回落至历史最低读数之一，低于2022年12月抛售潮后的水平，Kalchev将此解读为卖家动能枯竭。
资金流向也呈现出相同的形态。据SoSoValue数据，现货比特币ETF在周二和周三流出7.46亿美元，随后在周四和周五流入5.92亿美元，以620万美元的净流入结束该周。这是自推出以来最小的周度净流入，此前一周曾出现4.627亿美元的净流出。
然而，持续上涨的理由依然存在争议。CoinShares研究主管James Butterfill周五指出，美联储更大的意外在于从点阵图中移除了2027年之前的降息预期，这支撑了美元，并推迟了比特币所响应的流动性条件。他在文章中写道，今年进一步加息“看起来越来越合理”。
比特币面临的下一个考验是其无法控制的经济数据日历。PCE指数将于9月30日公布，就业数据于10月2日发布，CPI将于10月14日公布。Kalchev预计，降温的通胀数据和稳固的劳动力市场将比任何技术面水平都更重要。
