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BTC Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart
Daily Chart shows that Bitcoin's broader market structure has improved significantly. After more than a year of running below the main moving average, Bitcoin has regained its 100-day and 200-day moving averages and is currently trading at approximately $85,000.
Breaking through the US$74,000 support zone marks an important structural shift. Subsequently, Bitcoin consolidated for several weeks between US$74,000 and US$80,000 before breaking through upwards recently. The latest gains have pushed BTC above the upper boundary of the consolidation range and towards the $85,000 region.
The next major resistance level is in the bearish order block area around $88,000. A sustained breakthrough above this area could further expose the $95,000 area, the next important resistance level visible on the chart.
On the downside side, with the breakthrough, the US$80,000 area has become a level that requires key attention. If Bitcoin remains above this area during potential backtests, it will support the formation of a continuity structure. Conversely, a decisive break could signal a failure of the break and bring market focus back to the $74,000 range.
In addition, the daily relative strength index (RSI) has also strengthened significantly and is approaching the 75 region. This confirms an improvement in momentum, but also suggests that the market is becoming increasingly overbought in the short term.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
4小时图提供了近期突破更清晰的画面。比特币此前一直在一个下降通道内交易，通道的上下边界逐渐下移。最终，价格突破了该通道，并重新收复了80,000美元至82,000美元的阻力区。
自突破以来，涨势加速，比特币达到了约85,000美元。目前的即时关注点在于88,000美元区域，这也是较高时间框架图表上可见的订单块。
动能尤为强劲，4小时RSI位于80附近。虽然高位的RSI读数并不一定意味着突破无效，但它们确实增加了在急剧上涨后出现短期盘整或回测的可能性。
因此，80,000美元至82,000美元区域可能是近期的关键支撑位。守住该区域将使最近的突破结构保持完整；而若持续跌破该区域，则可能表明比特币在尝试再次上行之前，需要进行更深度的回调。
链上分析
比特币矿工储备图表显示出矿工出货节奏的明显变化。在整个2024年大部分时间里，以及进入2025年和2026年初期，矿工储备经历了激烈的下降，并持续呈下行趋势。在此期间，矿工储备的30日指数移动平均线（EMA）也遵循着持续的下降轨迹，反映了矿工持有的BTC数量长期减少。
然而，近几个月来，这一趋势已变得明显更加稳定。矿工储备主要在119万枚BTC附近横向波动，与之前的下跌相比，30日EMA已大幅走平。
这种稳定表明，矿工的激烈出货行为已经放缓。矿工似乎正在维持相对稳定的BTC持仓水平，而不是继续以之前相同的速度减少储备。
这一时机值得注意，因为比特币同时恢复到了85,000美元区域附近。价格行为的改善与矿工出货速度的放缓相结合，可能会消除前期 characterized 的持续性卖压。虽然仅凭图表不能证实矿工确实在增持，但储备的稳定化代表了与之前剧烈消耗截然不同的有意义变化。
对于比特币更广泛的市场结构而言，矿工储备的持续稳定或反转向上，将是未来需要密切关注的重要发展动向。
