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BTC Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital: Fed interest rate hikes may not be bad for Bitcoin
Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, which focuses on global liquidity research, suggested that although there is widespread belief that the Fed's potential interest rate increase will have a negative impact on Bitcoin, this may not be the case. Howell pointed out that in the modern financial system, the decisive factor is not the level of policy interest rates, but the liquidity needed to maintain debt rolling and ensure the stability of repo and collateral markets.
Fundamental changes in the global financial structure
Howley said that the global financial system has undergone significant changes in recent years, and the capital market is changing from a structure that provides financing for "new investments" to a mechanism for refinancing "existing debt." According to Howery's calculations, about 80% of primary transactions in global capital markets are currently related to debt refinancing. Therefore, compared with interest costs, balance sheet capacity and liquidity-that is, the ability of financial institutions to continue lending-are more critical factors in maintaining system stability.
This structural shift means that the impact of rising interest rates on the economy is different from the past. Howley pointed out that the U.S. government has become a huge net debtor. When interest rates rise, the government has to pay more interest to bondholders, which effectively injects more cash into the private sector. Howery argues that this mechanism allows interest rate increases to have a stimulative effect rather than a contractionary effect under certain conditions.
Interest rates may become a "stimulus" means
Howley emphasized: "If you raise interest rates in the United States, you are essentially providing more cash to the private sector. This is not austerity, it is stimulus." According to the analyst's analysis, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points, it may meet the expectations of the short-term bond market, help consolidate the long-term bond market, reduce yields and reduce the volatility of the bond market.
The real key point for Bitcoin is the liquidity that must be maintained in the system. Howley pointed out that the United States is increasingly turning to short-term Treasury borrowing and is expanding bank balance sheets and money supply. He described the process as "monetary inflation" and believed that gold and cryptocurrencies were the main asset classes that benefited from this environment.
Liquidity sensitivity and historical data confirm
Historical data shows that assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold and silver are highly sensitive to increases in global liquidity. Howery specifically mentioned Bitcoin's strong response to liquidity expansion, adding that if there is a debt rolling crisis in the financial system, the central bank will be forced to replenish liquidity to the market. As we saw during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic in 2008, central bank increases in money supply to support the system often lead to strong movements in gold, silver and cryptocurrency prices.
豪厄利还认为，鉴于美国公共债务高企，其被迫维持短期借贷和金融系统的充足流动性。因此，他主张即使美联储加息，流动性条件仍可能保持支持力度，近期比特币和黄金的上涨可能与市场开始定价这一情境有关。
豪厄利表示，如果美联储在下一次会议上将政策利率上调25个基点，长期债券市场可能会走高，这种情景可能对金融状况产生积极影响，这与市场普遍预期相反。豪厄利总结道，投资者关注比特币的关键变量并非利率决策本身，而是决策后全球流动性、货币供应量和回购市场的具体表现。
