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Following
BTC Bitcoin (BTC) fell to its lowest point in more than two weeks on Friday, and the U.S. stock market came under pressure before the close of the month.
Key points:
Bitcoin approached US$62000, a 3.5% intraday decline.
U.S. stocks did not respond positively to the rebound in Asian markets-Asian stocks rebounded after the semiconductor sector sold off.
Analysis warns that Bitcoin's bear market history may repeat itself in August.
Bitcoin prices target US$62000 in month-end fluctuations
Data from TradingView showed that BTC/USD fell to US$62369 on Bitstamp, a drop of 3.5%, the lowest level since July 14. 
BTC/USD One-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The U.S. stock market turned downward after the opening, then stabilized, diverging from the sharp rebound in Asian markets. In Asia, South Korea's KOSPI index closed up 17.9% on the day, the largest one-day gain in history. 
One-day chart of the KOSPI Index. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest macro market trend comments: "Semiconductor stocks led both declines and gains, reflecting the index's high exposure to global artificial intelligence and memory chip cycles." The QCP noted that trading activity in the cryptocurrency market has increased with the sharp fluctuations in the KOSPI index, saying this "highlights the growing connection between cryptocurrency liquidity, regional stock positions and broader tech sector sentiment." Japan and South Korea both reportedly intervened in currencies on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate at 1.0% after the Federal Reserve decided to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday.
Bitcoin traders believe bear market history in August will repeat itself
According to CoinGlass data, BTC/USD rose 8.5% at the monthly candle close, setting the strongest July performance since 2022. 
Monthly return rate of BTC/USD (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Previously, traders had expected the pair to rebound until August, similar to the bear market in 2022, and eventually hit the next long-term bottom. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital believes that bitcoin price movements are replicating the bear market trend of four years ago, and he predicts that the trend may not reverse immediately. "Prices will likely try to maintain these highs in early August, but history suggests prices may turn downward as they did in 2022," he wrote in a Platform X post on Friday. Rekt Capital reiterated that Bitcoin's 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) is currently at $65820 and continues to pose resistance after two failed breakthroughs since mid-June. 
One-day chart of BTC/USD with a 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
