Senate postponed vote, leaving little hope for a weekend vote on CLARITY bill

The prospects for a weekend Senate vote on CLARITY bill bleak

On Thursday, the chances of the CLARITY bill winning a Senate vote over the weekend faded because leadership failed to take any procedural action to advance the crypto market regulation bill.

Summary

There was no motion for closing debate on the CLARITY bill on Thursday's Senate agenda. The Senate prioritized an appropriations bill, multiple personnel nominations and the College Sports Protection Act of 2026. Senator Cynthia Loomis is still pushing lawmakers to take action before the August recess. Polymarket predicts that the market has lowered the likelihood of the bill becoming law in 2026 to 17%.

CLARITY bill misses procedural window again

Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not file a request for closure of debate on a motion to advance the CLARITY bill on Wednesday, leaving the bill lacking the procedural countdown needed for a preliminary vote. The U.S. Senate will reconvene at 10 a.m. Thursday to continue reviewing a batch of personnel nominations submitted under Senate Resolution 817, a daily Senate press release said. A call vote is expected, but a specific time has not been arranged. Thun has made a complaint to H.R. Alternative amendments to 6500 (a Continuing Resolution Act), S. 4668's motion to advance and Todd Branch's nomination to serve as attorney general filed closing arguments. S. 4668 is the College Sports Protection Act of 2026. The CLARITY bill does not appear on this list. Without submitting a motion to close debate, Senate leadership cannot initiate the standard process of limiting debate and advancing the bill to the full house. The omission made it increasingly difficult to conduct a procedural vote over the weekend, even if senators remained in Washington after Friday.

Bipartisan negotiations are still active

Despite the delay, there are signs that Republicans, Democrats and the White House are still negotiating outstanding terms. Senator Tom Tillis told reporters that administration officials have begun reviewing parts of the proposed language. "We are currently working with the White House... they are reviewing some of the wording item by item," Tillis said. "Moral restrictions involving senior federal officials remain one of the major obstacles to reaching an agreement. Lawmakers also discussed provisions covering illegal finance, decentralized finance, stablecoin incentives and the authority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Senate needs 60 votes to pass end debate and advance legislation. Republicans cannot reach that threshold without Democratic support, so a bipartisan agreement must be reached before leadership can bring the bill to the full house. Even if senators agree on controversial language, the bill will still have to compete with government appropriations bills, personnel nominations and other measures already on the procedural queue.

Loomis continues to put pressure on Senate leadership

Senator Cynthia Loomis continues to push for a vote before the August recess. The Wyoming Republican said earlier this week that lawmakers will likely spend the weekend in Washington. "I don't think we're going to leave on Friday, we're going to work until the weekend," Loomis said. In addition to the CLARITY bill, we need to vote on other bills before we recess in August. "Loomis has previously said Thun has set aside several weeks for the bill to be on the Senate agenda. However, her remarks described her expectations for progress on the bill rather than confirmation that leadership had scheduled a procedural vote. Negotiators have been working on the bill for nearly 11 months. Loomis said she has recently focused on the bill's provisions on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while lawmakers are trying to resolve differences between the two parties. The senator argued that Congress needs to clarify federal regulation of digital assets to prevent crypto companies from moving business operations outside the United States.

Polymarket forecast probability reduced to 17%

Market forecasting traders are increasingly sceptical about Congress passing the bill this year. On Thursday, Polymarket set the likelihood of the CLARITY bill being signed into law in 2026 at about 17%, a drop of 48% over the time period shown in the chart provided. The cumulative trading volume of this contract has exceeded US$5 million. Earlier this year, the probability exceeded 70% at multiple points in time, and then continued to decline in June and July. That probability has dropped even more sharply as pending negotiations and a crowded Senate schedule shrink the available legislative window. Polymarket contracts are only available under H.R. Bill 3633 will not be judged "Yes" until it passes both houses and is signed by the President before December 31. A bipartisan agreement could revitalize the bill after recess, but the Senate still needs to complete its procedural vote, review amendments and approve the legislation. Any changes to the text passed by the House may also require further House action before the bill is submitted to the president.