AVAX prices are expected to see a big trend, but this risk may once again trap buyers

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AVAX prices return to key support areas, but cross-chain data reveals potential risks

Avalanche prices have been trying to recover from a brutal decline that swallowed up most of their value over the past few years. Today, AVAX has returned to a familiar support area-an area where buyers have intervened decisively many times, and the rebound in the past three days has provided the market with preliminary reasons for optimism. However, this rebound still carries significant risks.

Avalanche prices remain suppressed below resistance levels that have blocked all important gains many times since June 2026. Stronger online activity may provide support for the next attempt, but buyers need more than a brief price rebound before broader structural changes occur.

Avalanche prices return to the support area that has been effective since 2021

AVAX reached an all-time high of about $150 in 2021, and then entered a long-term decline. Avalanche prices have continued to depreciate in 2022 and have never seen a lasting rebound, bringing them back to their previous peaks.

During this decline, the area between $5.80 and $6.50 became particularly critical. Buyers have defended this area many times since 2021, and AVAX has repeatedly avoided confirmation breaks below this area.

At the beginning of the week, prices fell again towards the same region. Subsequently, Avalanche prices reversed direction and recorded an upward trend over the past three days. The rally suggests buyers are still prepared to defend this historic bottom, but it does not confirm a broader breakthrough.

The current pattern includes several important levels:

· Avalanche prices have major support between $5.80 and $6.50.
· AVAX rebounded multiple times after testing the area.
·Resistance near $7 has been holding back gains since June 2026.
·A stronger breakthrough could open the path to $8.50.
·After further confirmation above $8.50, the next target may look towards $10.

Before achieving any larger goals, AVAX must first get out of its narrow range. Previous rallies from the lower boundary have stalled near resistance levels, posing the main risk for buyers entering after several positive trading days.

Avalanche RWA transfers increase 360% in 30 days

Network data provides an explanation for recent strength. AMk.Crypto reported that Avalanche recorded real-world asset (RWA) transfers of $365.29 million in 30 days. This represents an increase of 360.15% during this period.

These activities cover tokenized currencies, stocks and private credit flowing through the Avalanche network. This growth suggests that Avalanche is handling more activity related to transfers of assets other than standard cryptocurrencies.

RWA activities are important because Avalanche is designed to support customizable blockchains with fast transaction finality and scalable infrastructure. Projects can create dedicated networks instead of forcing all applications to be placed on the same common chain.

0xNaveed points out that this structure may become valuable if more applications are migrated onto the chain. Dedicated networks can serve different industries, companies, and financial products without relying on a shared design that works for all use cases.

The stronger Avalanche RWA event provides AVAX buyers with a fundamental development worthy of attention. Price confirmation is still necessary because network expansion does not guarantee that AVAX prices will immediately break through resistance.

Cross-chain data reveals the main risks behind AVAX recovery

Cross-chain activity presents a more complex picture. Rango reported that AVAX recorded more than $200 million in cross-chain traffic, but outflows exceeded inflows by $17 million.

So what about AVAX?

AVAX recorded more than US$200 million in cross-chain traffic, with outflows exceeding inflows by US$17 million! Not all AVAX channels play the same role: BSC supports balanced two-way activities, while Ethereum serves as the main mobility hub. Flow is directional, but not…

During this period, different Avalanche channels serve different purposes. BSC supports relatively balanced two-way flow, while Ethereum gets more liquidity from Avalanche than it returns.

Rango describes AVAX as the routing layer for this bulk of mobility, rather than the final destination. This result does not mean that funds have completely left the Avalanche network, but its $17 million difference suggests that capital retention remains an issue.

This difference is crucial to Avalanche's price outlook. The high cross-chain volume proves that users are moving money through the ecosystem, but if most of the capital ends up settling elsewhere, AVAX may only receive limited price support.

Therefore, the risks are obvious. Avalanche's activity can increase, but it may not generate enough sustained demand to push AVAX beyond resistance. If prices briefly rise to the upper boundary and then fall back to $5.80, buyers could be trapped again.

AVAX chart shows what buyers need before a bigger rally

Profit Conscious expects a strong bullish rally on AVAX. Looking at the chart shared by the analyst shows that Avalanche prices are trading in a broad decline structure that began after previous market peaks.

The upper trend line has blocked rebound attempts many times. The lower trend line leads AVAX towards its current support area. Prices have now reached the narrow end of the structure and the distance between the two boundaries has become very small.

Avalanche has also been trading in a narrower horizontal range since June 2026. The lower border is close to $5.80 and the upper border is close to $7. Each move to the upper boundary area loses momentum before AVAX falls back to support.

Confirm that a breakthrough of $7 will be a useful first step. AVAX may then test $8.50, which remains the more important level of confirmation. After successfully breaking through $8.50, the Avalanche price may move towards $10.

Further strength above $10 would improve the broader structure and create room for a move towards $14 or $15. These goals rely on AVAX to break through multiple resistance levels, so the path may require more than one quick rebound.

A failed breakthrough can bring different results. AVAX may fall back to $5.80 and test whether buyers are still prepared to defend that range. A confirmation below this level would weaken this historic foundation and dispel the current bullish pattern.

Avalanche Prices currently have stronger RWA data, active cross-chain routing, and a support bit with a history of years. The same chart shows why caution is still needed. AVAX has previously recovered from the area, but the next test will reveal whether buyers can finally turn another rebound into a real breakthrough.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can AVAX go up to $100? Possibly, but this will largely depend on a strong overall bull market in the cryptocurrency market, rising Internet adoption rates, and growth in the real-world asset (RWA) and institutional sectors. Analysts predict that under favorable conditions, reaching $100 is reasonable later in the decade, possibly between 2026 and 2028.

How high can AVAX rise in 2026? For the rest of 2026, Avalanche's (AVAX) conservative price forecast puts its expected trading range between $6 and $14, while more optimistic market models predict it may recover to $25 to $44. In a radical bull market scenario, if major cryptocurrency market momentum returns, its price could even reach as high as $100.