Bitcoin's closing price this year may differ by no more than US$20,000 from its current price...

Why does Bitget CEO expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound?

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen said that despite the recent rebound in Bitcoin, its price may remain basically near current levels throughout 2026. She believes that interest rates and macroeconomic conditions will limit the upside of the cryptocurrency for the rest of the year. Chen pointed out that it is difficult to predict whether Bitcoin will end the year above or below $70,000, especially because monetary policy may become less favorable to risky assets. Higher interest rates will increase yields on traditional assets and may reduce investor interest in cryptocurrencies. "If any of this happens, prices should fall, at least in theory," Chen said. Her benchmark expectations are more towards no clear direction. Chen believes Bitcoin's price at the end of the year could be $10,000 to $20,000 above or below current levels, a forecast she described as fluctuating broadly around the current trading range and called it a "more prudent" expectation. This view contrasts with the more aggressive bullish forecasts that believe Bitcoin's recent rise will continue into another round of sustained gains. Chen instead believes that Bitcoin's increasingly close connection with traditional finance makes interest rates, liquidity and economic conditions increasingly important to its performance.

Why have interest rates become more important to Bitcoin?

As institutional holdings, exchange-traded products and corporate positions grow, Bitcoin has become more closely connected to traditional financial markets. This allows macroeconomic conditions to play a greater role in determining demand than in previous cryptocurrency cycles, when retail traders were dominated mainly. Higher interest rates could put pressure on Bitcoin in a number of ways. They increase returns on cash and government bonds, increase financing costs, and may reduce liquidity available for speculative assets. Lower interest rates could have the opposite effect, making non-yielding and risky investments relatively more attractive. This means that Bitcoin investors may need to focus on both central bank expectations and cryptocurrency-specific factors such as ETF capital flows, corporate purchases and online activity. If monetary policy tightens significantly, even a strong cryptocurrency narrative may not be enough to sustain the rally.

Investor Points

Chen's forecast sees Bitcoin increasingly as a macro asset rather than an isolated cryptocurrency transaction. If interest rates remain high or rise further, it may be difficult for Bitcoin to continue its gains even if institutional adoption continues.

Will the U.S. government start buying Bitcoin?

Chen also expressed doubts that the U.S. government will start directly purchasing bitcoin to replenish its national reserves before the end of Trump's presidency, despite the current administration's favorable attitude towards digital assets. The Trump administration created a strategic bitcoin reserve in March 2025 using bitcoins that had been turned over to the federal government. Officials have also been instructed to study budget-neutral methods to increase government holdings without increasing additional taxpayer spending. The U.S. government currently controls approximately 328,372 bitcoins, with the majority of the inventory coming from criminal seizures and asset forfeiture rather than open market purchases. Chen believes that transforming reserves from unused asset inventories into active government purchase plans will be a more significant policy decision. The move could require debate between lawmakers and political parties about the government's role in owning and accumulating a volatile financial asset. "From a policy perspective, this is likely unlikely," Chen said. "I don't think that's going to happen at the moment."

Why is it important for the United States to buy Bitcoin directly?

There is a fundamental difference between direct federal purchases and retaining government-owned bitcoins. Buying Bitcoin would create a new source of sovereign demand and could strengthen the argument that Bitcoin is being regarded as a strategic reserve asset, rather than just property acquired by law enforcement operations. Such policies may also affect expectations that exceed the number of direct purchases. Traders are likely to assess whether other governments will adopt similar strategies, potentially intensifying competition for a fixed supply of bitcoin. Without direct purchases, strategic bitcoin reserves have a limited impact on market demand. Retaining confiscated bitcoins reduces the likelihood that these positions will be sold, but does not create the continued buying pressure that accumulation plans may create. For Bitcoin for the rest of 2026, this makes monetary policy and private sector needs more direct variables. If the government does not actively increase its holdings of Bitcoin reserves, changes in ETF flows, corporate treasury purchases, and interest rate expectations may have a greater impact on prices than speculation about federal purchases.