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BTC Bitwise Chief Investment Officer predicts that if it occupies 33% of the value store market, Bitcoin could reach US$1.3 million.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said that if Bitcoin can occupy one-third of the global value store market, then in the next ten years, the price of each Bitcoin could reach approximately US$1.3 million. Hougan proposed this idea while discussing Bitcoin's long-term potential to surpass current speculative assets.
Bitcoin's value store potential
Hougan believes that Bitcoin's true value lies in its ability to directly compete with traditional value store assets, including gold, offshore wealth and global reserve assets. He estimates the total size of these markets to be about US$80 trillion, which includes gold reserves, assets held by central banks and global savings vehicles.
According to Hougan's forecast, if Bitcoin successfully occupies 33% of the market, it will attract approximately US$26 trillion in value. Divide this number by the limited supply of 21 million bitcoins (minus permanently lost coins counted by analyst firms like Glassnode), and the implied price of each bitcoin is close to $1.3 million. Hougan pointed out that scarcity is a key factor for institutional investors and said: "If Bitcoin only accounts for one-third of the market, each Bitcoin will be worth about $1.3 million."
Bitwise, known for its Spot Bitcoin ETF (BitB), emphasized that Bitcoin's fixed and transparent supply model makes it a unique asset that distinguishes it from traditional investment vehicles. The company believes that scarcity and transparency are driving large-scale capital allocations by institutional investors.
ETF capital inflows and institutional evolution
The recent activity of spot Bitcoin ETFs has attracted widespread attention. According to reports from platforms such as SoSoValue, net inflows have exceeded US$50 billion since January 2024. According to data compiled by Arkham Intelligence, the corporate finance department was previously dominated by MicroStrategy's large bitcoin positions, but now more and more institutions are joining.
As U.S. Treasuries exceed US$35 trillion and central banks attempt to tokenize reserve assets, demand for non-sovereign stores of value is rising. Bitwise believes this environment could drive the development of alternative assets, but also highlights risks, including continued price volatility, unclear SEC regulatory guidance, and competition from emerging alternatives such as tokenized gold.
Potential impact on broader industries
If Bitcoin is widely adopted as a global store of value, it will have a profound impact on exchanges, custodians, and second-tier blockchain networks such as Lightning Network and Stacks. Developers and service providers in these areas may see significant evolution in liquidity standards, custody agreements, and transaction fee structures. The shift could prompt industry stakeholders to lobby for a clearer regulatory definition of Bitcoin and seek to formally recognize it as a legal asset class suitable for inclusion in traditional investment portfolios.
As institutional adoption increases, the need for robust infrastructure, standardized fee markets, and regulatory clarity will rise rapidly for all participants in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Valuation of store of value assets and potential share of Bitcoin
Hougan regards gold, central bank reserves and other savings instruments as store of value assets, and estimates their market size at US$14 trillion, US$13 trillion and US$53 trillion respectively, totaling US$80 trillion. If Bitcoin accounts for 33% of the share, it corresponds to a value of approximately US$26 trillion. Bitwise's vision for Bitcoin reflects a broader trend of asset managers and institutional investors seeking non-sovereign stores of value to achieve diversification and long-term growth in a changing economic environment.
