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标题：‘隐形’熊市正在加剧：标普500指数中60%的股票跌幅已超过20%

2026-10-31 20:10:58

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标普500指数：历史新高还是熊市陷阱？

标普500指数虽然仍紧逼历史最高点，但深入观察发现，该指数在过去几周内的受损程度已显著加剧。根据Kobeissi Letter整理的数据，目前超过60%的成分股已进入通常定义的“熊市”区间（即较历史高点下跌至少20%），而部分大型科技股和加密货币相关股票的下跌幅度更为惊人。

分析显示，“七巨头”中的四家公司股价已从峰值回落15%以上。总体而言，这七家公司的总市值已从高点蒸发约4万亿美元，这一数字远超整个加密货币市场的总市值。这种恶化趋势加速显现，其中Alphabet领跌，自400美元的历史高点下跌31%至282美元；Meta自8月中旬峰值以来股价暴跌逾21%，上周收盘于625美元左右。

此前我们曾报道过市场出现的分化现象：当时已有59%的标普500成分股低于其峰值20%以上，尽管少数巨型市值股票仍在支撑指数。从3月30日的低点反弹过程中，仅有十家公司贡献了标普500指数约70%的涨幅。

科技与加密资产股票表现最差

Kobeissi的最新名单凸显了科技相关企业的困境。AppLovin股价从历史高点暴跌68%，CoreWeave回调60%，Western Digital下跌54%，Oracle下滑51%。Arm Holdings股价重挫49%，随后Alphabet、Broadcom、Meta、Micron、Adobe和Intel也紧随其后。

加密货币相关股票的表现同样糟糕。名单中包括Coinbase，其股价从峰值下跌62%；Circle下跌48%；Robinhood虽非纯加密公司，但过去一年涉足更深，股价亦大幅下挫44%。

鉴于损失已从支撑指数的核心企业蔓延开来，仅因主要指数接近峰值就将当前市场描述为传统牛市已愈发困难。然而，Kobeissi Letter仍将这种分化视为潜在的机会，而非长期崩盘的必然开端。

进入熊市区间的科技股列表：

1. AppLovin ($APP): -68%
2. Coinbase ($COIN): -62%
3. CoreWeave ($CRWV): -60%
4. Arm Holdings ($ARM): -55%
5. Western Digital ($WDC): -54%
6. Intel ($INTC): -54%
7. Oracle ($ORCL): -51%
8. SanDisk ($SNDK): -49%
9. Circle ($CRCL): -48%
10. ServiceNow ($NOW): -44%
11. Robinhood ($HOOD): -44%
12. Seagate ($STX): -42%
13. Marvell Technology ($MRVL): -39%
14. Super Micro Computer ($SMCI): -39%
15. Broadcom ($AVGO): -34%
16. Alphabet ($GOOGL): -31%
17. Adobe ($ADBE): -29%
18. Micron ($MU): -29%
19. IBM ($IBM): -23%
20. Meta ($META): -21%
21. Amazon ($AMZN): -21%

Nasdaq 100指数自10月6日以来已累计下跌近5万亿美元。

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