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BTC Bitcoin may enter an early recovery stage, and selling pressure on long-term holders is easing
According to the latest weekly report of on-chain analysis firm Glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering an early recovery stage after months of weakness. Following continued selling pressure from long-term holders in 2026, Glassnode observed that this source of market pressure has begun to ease.
U.S. inflation data was lower than expected, and market sentiment turned optimistic.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the latest inflation data has cooled down, with an annualized price increase of 3.5%, lower than the expected 4.2%. Falling energy costs provided support for this moderating data and boosted risk appetite across various asset categories.
Bitcoin responded more positively to inflation news than major stock indexes, indicating that investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a different existence from traditional risky assets. In recent months, the correlation between Bitcoin and stock indexes has continued to weaken.
At the same time, the negative correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar has increased, indicating that broader liquidity trends now have more influence on Bitcoin price movements than stock market sentiment.
Glassnode emphasized: "Bitcoin is trading less like a stock proxy and more like an asset that strengthens when the dollar weakens."
ETF outflows slow, but new inflows remain elusive
Since peaking in June, redemption rates in U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have slowed significantly, indicating that the wave of investor withdrawals is weakening. However, these funds have not yet seen sustained net inflows, leaving the overall sentiment among institutional participants to remain cautious.
On derivatives, Glassnode pointed out that the option put/call ratio has dropped to its lowest level since 2026. The change means traders are abandoning downside protection, indicating less demand for bearish positions. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate has taken a neutral stance, further strengthening caution.
Key price for Bitcoin recovery: US$69,000
Despite signs of stabilization, Glassnode still believes Bitcoin is in a "deep value" stage and has not yet confirmed a clear upward trend. The report points out that Bitcoin is trading above its historical bear market bottom (or realized price), but has not yet exceeded the next major resistance level-the short-term holder cost base, which is close to $69,000. This price represents the average purchase cost of investors in the near term and is regarded as a key threshold for continued bullish reversals.
Currently, Bitcoin is testing the $66,000 "maximum pain point" option strike price, which anchors the spot price for most of the year. Breaking through the $69,000 mark would signal a shift in momentum, and failure to recover that level could confirm continued caution among investors.
Key prices and their role in bitcoin price movements
Achieving prices: The bottom of a historical bear market.
Short-term holder cost base ($69,000): The main resistance level, the break-even point for recent buyers.
The "biggest pain point" option exercise price (US$66,000): The price that attracts spot and options trading activity.
Although selling pressure on long-term holders is easing and the pace of ETF redemptions has slowed, the market's recovery is still described as tentative. Glassnode reported that a stronger wave of spot buying is needed to form a sustained upward trend. [TAG
Despite the improvement in fundamental signals, Glassnode noted that the market needs to recover and stabilize above $69,000 to confirm a decisive bullish shift.
