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FollowingTLDR
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The hard drive market remains strong
Western Digital also receives optimistic outlook
Wall Street expects Seagate's earnings on Tuesday to show earnings per share of $5.10 and quarterly revenue of $3.5 billion.
Analyst firm Wedbush raised its STX price target from US$825 to US$1000 while maintaining its overweight rating.
After falling 11% in July and selling 6% on Friday, STX rebounded 2.5% to $872.53 before Monday's market.
New pricing arrangements with major cloud service providers are expected to take effect by the end of 2026.
Western Digital (WDC) also received an increase in Wedbush's target price from the previous US$540 to US$650.
Seagate Technology (STX) shares rose 2.5% to $872.53 in pre-market trading Monday after a difficult trading period. The data storage maker is scheduled to release quarterly results after the close of trading on Tuesday (July 28).
Seagate Technology Holdings plc, STX
The stock has soared more than 450% in the past 12 months, becoming the leader of the wave of artificial intelligence investment. However, this month faces challenges. STX fell 11% in July, contributing 6% in Friday trading alone. If this trend continues, it will mark the company's weakest monthly performance since March 2025.
Seagate closed slightly above its 50-day moving average on Friday.
Matt Bryson, an analyst who covers the sector, reiterated his stance on Monday while raising his valuation target to $1000 from the previous $825. His outlook expects Seagate to exceed Wall Street's consensus expectations, thanks to moderate pricing improvements and an optimized revenue structure.
Bryson said in a research note: "We believe that marginal pricing gains combined with better product portfolio dynamics should allow Seagate to again deliver results that exceed expectations. "
Based on Wall Street forecasts compiled by FactSet, analysts generally expect earnings per share to be $5.10, a year-on-year increase of 96%, and revenue totaled $3.5 billion, a 43% increase.
The hard disk market maintains strong momentum
Bryson emphasized that demand pressures and supply constraints in the hard disk drive industry are expected to persist into 2027. Major cloud infrastructure operators are the main drivers of this continued demand, using hard drives to archive the huge amounts of data needed for artificial intelligence model development.
The hard disk market is mainly controlled by Seagate and Western Digital, both companies that have become important winners from the surge in investment in artificial intelligence-related infrastructure.
An important consideration is the current long-term supply contracts between hard disk manufacturers and cloud giants, which may limit pricing power in the near term. However, according to Bryson's analysis, a new round of agreements, which is expected to start at the end of 2026, will have a higher average selling price, which will serve as a positive catalyst to continue into 2027.
Western Digital also gets optimistic outlook
Wedbush also raised Western Digital's valuation target from $540 to $650, and Bryson also maintained an overweight rating on the company.
Bryson commented: "We believe that WDC should be able to deliver results that exceed consensus expectations, and the upside potential may be greater given management's relatively cautious gross margin guidance. "
Western Digital is scheduled to release its financial results on August 5. Wall Street consensus forecasts showed WDC earnings per share of $3.30 and quarterly revenue of $3.7 billion.
STX, WDC, Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) usually fluctuate synchronously and all fell in July.
Seagate's IBD overall rating is 87 out of 99, ranking seventh in the computer hardware/peripherals industry category.
Analysts 'consensus forecast for Seagate's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share and revenue of $3.49 billion, based on forecasts compiled by Seeking Alpha.
