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ADA Key Summary
Decentralized governance requires approval
Futures markets reflect pessimistic expectations
ADA fell 1.03% after announcing the Dijkstra hard fork development timeline, To US$0.175
Phased upgrade plan
Phased upgrade plan covers the fourth quarter of 2026 to the second quarter of 2027 and will introduce the Ouroboros Linear Leios and Peras Agreement
Futures trading volume surged by 151.19%, while positions shrank by 1.76%
Since mid-August, Large addresses have sold 200 million ADA units, creating downward pressure.
Breaking US$0.18 is the key for the ADA to move towards US$0.19 or even US$0.20.
Cardano (ADA)'s price fell 1.03% after announcing its ambitious two-phase Dijkstra hard fork development plan and currently hovers around US$0.175. The roadmap outlines major protocol upgrades planned for late 2026 and the second quarter of 2027.
The first phase is planned for the fourth quarter of 2026, when Cardano will upgrade to version 12 of the protocol. This phase will implement Ouroboros Linear Leios, introduce nested transactions, and add script context capabilities to Plutus V4. In addition, the basic block structure will be laid for Ouroboros Peras.
The subsequent phase is expected in the second quarter of 2027, when another hard fork will activate Ouroboros Peras. This consensus mechanism aims to increase transaction confirmation speed and potentially shorten settlement times on the blockchain.
This timeline represents development goals rather than a determined launch date on the main network. Each upgrade phase needs to be fully tested on the Preview and Pre-production networks before being released to the main network.
Decentralized governance requires approval
The implementation process also requires consensus on the Cardano decentralized governance framework. Authorized representatives (DReps), pledge pool operators and the Constitutional Council must all participate in the approval process before any agreement changes can be implemented.
Market analyst Sjuul from AltCryptoGems commented on the X platform that ADA is "still lower as we expected" and pointed to bearish breaks in the market structure. The analyst emphasized that the rebound of altcoins is still short-lived and is characterized by capital rotation rather than continued upward momentum.
Blockchain analysis data from Sanitation shows that since August 11, approximately 200 million tokens have been cleared at addresses holding 1 million to 100 million ADA tokens. Although smaller whale groups have absorbed some of the supply, the overall pattern suggests significant distribution.
Futures markets reflect pessimistic expectations
Derivatives indicators reinforce negative sentiment. CoinGlass data showed that the long-short ratio fell to 0.92 on Monday, below the equilibrium threshold of 1.0. Funding rates have also turned negative, indicating that short holders are paying compensation to long traders.
ADA spot trading volume surged 89.88% to $388.36 million. Derivatives trading volume increased significantly by 151.19% to US$15.56 million. At the same time, open positions fell 1.76% to $451.31 million, indicating that leveraged positions are being liquidated.
The current reading of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 34, which is in oversold territory. Immediate resistance appears at $0.179 where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is located, while the 100-day EMA is at $0.194.
ADA is currently trading below a series of dense exponential moving averages. The MACD indicator continues to show negative momentum. If the ADA closes below $0.173 at daily level, it is likely to test support near $0.150.
Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator rose to 0.19, indicating moderate positive capital inflows into the ADA at current price levels.
