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BTC NYDIG报告：比特币或尚未触底，历史模式暗示可能进一步下探
根据NYDIG的一份最新报告，比特币可能尚未触及底部。该机构认为，当前正在进行的2025-2026年回调行情，正开始与2014年、2018年及2022年发生的重大熊市出现相似之处，这意味着在下一轮复苏开启之前，比特币仍有可能进一步走低。
NYDIG在其第二季度报告中指出，本轮疲软并非源于整体市场的抛售。相反，该机构表示，比特币正面临加密市场特有的阻力因素，包括现货需求疲软、杠杆率上升以及机构行为变化，这些因素共同对价格构成了压力。以下是市场表面之下的真实情况。
历史信号指向3.8万至3.9万美元的底部
比特币在2025年上半年结束时下跌了32.9%，其中第二季度跌幅为13.4%。这一大幅下跌之所以引人注目，是因为同期传统市场表现强劲。科技股上涨43.5%，纳斯达克100指数上涨27.7%，这表明比特币的疲软是由加密市场特有的因素驱动，而非广泛的风险偏好下降环境所致。
NYDIG compared the current cycle with Bitcoin's four previous bear markets in four-year cycles and found striking similarities in both the depth of decline and the duration of pullbacks. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could fall to about $38,000 to $39,000 later this year before forming the bottom of the cycle. As of now, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high of approximately US$126,000 in October 2025, making it one of the most drastic pullbacks in recent years.
Strategy becomes a major concern in the market
One of the most significant changes comes from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). The company has launched a "Digital Credit Capital Framework" that authorizes up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin monetization plans, the first time it has established a formal bitcoin sale mechanism. The proceeds may be used to: build U.S. dollar reserves, pay preferred stock dividends, pay interest expenses, and buy back shares. According to NYDIG, this changes the market narrative because one of the largest buyers of Bitcoin is no longer seen as a one-way buying machine.
ETF funds flow shows weak spot demand
The report shows that institutional demand remains sluggish. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately US$4.9 billion in the second quarter. The main outflow came from funds owned by BlackRock, Gray and Fidelity. The only exception is Morgan Stanley's new Bitcoin ETF, which attracted $364.8 million in inflows, demonstrating that channel distribution capabilities remain critical.
Leverage growth exceeds demand growth
NYDIG warned that derivatives markets are rebuilding leverage while spot demand is weakening. Open interest in futures continues to rise and funding rates remain positive, meaning that leveraged bulls are increasing. The market value of stablecoins has dropped by about $11 billion, indicating that fresh money is leaving the crypto ecosystem. The report warned that without the support of ETF inflows and stablecoin growth, leverage could trigger a new round of liquidation-driven declines.
Major catalysts worthy of attention
NYDIG said there are several events that may determine Bitcoin's next step. The Senate's July-August window is seen as the last realistic window of opportunity before political obstacles intensify. Moral concerns and stablecoin yield clauses remain key sticking points. While policy is not yet clear, higher interest rates led by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh continue to put pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.
Another area worthy of attention is the situation in Iran. The report pointed out that rising oil prices may keep inflation high and delay interest rate cuts. In addition, Trump signed two executive orders focusing on quantum technology. Although this is not an imminent threat, Bitcoin may need to be coordinated in the future to introduce quantum-resistant cryptography-technology. At the same time, the KelpDAO cross-chain bridge attack exposed persistent infrastructure and security risks in the decentralized finance sector.
