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Following
ADA Cardano (ADA)'s current trading range is US$0.161 to US$0.163. Affected by market sentiment driven by short positions, prices fell slightly by about 1.4%, while a major network upgrade is scheduled for July 18.
Institutional positions contrast with retail behavior
ADA fluctuated between US$0.1611 and US$0.1664 during the latest trading session, falling back from a high near US$0.195 in early July. However, large holders are significantly increasing their holdings. The total balance of wallets holding 100,000 to 100 million ADAs has increased to 25.65 billion ADAs, the highest level since February 2023. This group of investors, often viewed as "whales," appears to be taking advantage of the current price decline to expand their positions.
In contrast, retail investors are less interested in increasing holdings. Data shows that wallets holding fewer than 100 ADAs currently hold about 0.7% less shares than four months ago. This shows that institutions and small holders have different views on Cardano's future.
Large investors holding 100,000 to 100 million ADAs have held a total of 25.65 billion ADAs, the highest shareholding rate since February 2023, while retail participation continues to decline.
In terms of derivatives, CoinGlass data shows that the ADA's weighted funding rate is-0.0067%, indicating that short sellers are paying fees to long sellers. The long and short ratio was 0.58, indicating bearish sentiment, while ADA futures open interest increased by about 4% to between $421 million and $445 million.
Van Rossem upgrade scheduled for July 18
The next big event for the Cardano Network was the activation of the Van Rossem hard fork, which was officially approved on July 13. Intersect, the membership governance body of the Cardano Ecosystem, has instructed all infrastructure operators to complete necessary software updates before scheduled upgrades. The Van Rossem upgrade will be available on July 18 at 21:45 UTC.
Van Rossem will reduce transaction fees and upgrade Plutus smart contract capabilities. These improvements aim to make decentralized applications and online transactions more efficient and economical. In addition, the upgrade lays the foundation for a future performance improvement called Leios, which aims to improve Cardano's transaction processing capabilities by the end of 2026.
Small Dictionary: Intersect was established in 2023 as a member-driven governance organization designed to provide decentralized and collaborative supervision of the operation and upgrade of the Cardano Network.
The Van Rossem hard fork will introduce enhancements to the Plutus smart contract platform and reduce execution costs, paving the way for more scalable applications on Cardano in the future.
Key technical levels and analyst views
ADA is currently trading slightly below the Murrey Math resistance level of US$0.1709 on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the range of 44.0 to 46.9, reflecting neutral to moderately bearish momentum. The MACD indicator currently also shows weak positive momentum.
Key resistance areas are at $0.173 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement),$0.179 (50-day exponential moving average), and a higher range between $0.195 and $0.207. Recent support has been at $0.150, following a previous cyclical low of $0.1382 on June 25. A concentrated liquidity pool can be seen in the range of US$0.160 to US$0.161, and a large amount of interest is also concentrated around US$0.170. A price break below $0.160 could trigger the liquidation of long positions, pushing the ADA to approximately $0.1465. A break above US$0.170 could trigger short squeeze and push prices back.
Immediate resistance: Murrey Math US$0.1709
Resistance: Fibonacci (23.6%) US$0.173
Resistance: 50-day index moving average US$0.179
Resistance: Range highs 0.195 - 0.207 US $
Support: Recent support for US$0.150
Support: June low of US$0.1382
Market analyst Celal Kucuker recently shared his views on platform X. He expressed his belief that Cardano may reach a record high of US$5 and pointed out that bullish divergences are visible on the weekly RSI. He believes the current price range may be the bottom and expects a strong rebound from current levels.
Despite these optimistic forecasts, the ADA is still below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (at $0.179,$0.208 and $0.276 respectively), indicating that the broader downtrend remains intact before Van Rossem's upgrade.
