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ADA Cardano fell 1.39% on the eve of the Van Rossem hard fork, and a surge in short positions suppressed whale demand.
Two days before the start of the Van Rossem hard fork, Cardano (ADA) fell 1.39% to US$0.1628, as rising short positions overwhelmed whale buying demand.
Core Summary
ADA prices fell to $0.1628 as traders increased short positions before the Van Rossem fork. Despite negative funding rates and rising futures holdings, Cardano Whales continue to increase their ADA holdings. Liquidity-intensive areas of $0.160 and $0.170 may determine the next major trend for ADA.
data showed that the ADA trading price on July 16 was between US$0.1611 and US$0.1664, continuing the correction from the high near US$0.195 in early July. The decline comes as large holders are still increasing their holdings in ADA and Cardano is preparing to launch the most important network upgrade in years.
Data shows that the ADA-weighted funding rate is-0.0067%, which means that traders holding short positions are paying fees to bullish bets. The long-short ratio fell to 0.58, while open positions rose 4% to $421 million, indicating that traders are adding new leveraged positions.
These data suggest that derivatives traders still tend to bet on further price declines before upgrades. However, the concentration of short positions also increases the risk of short-squeeze liquidation if the ADA rises significantly.
Game between whale demand and bearish futures bets
It is worth noting that the holdings of addresses holding 100,000 to 100 million ADAs have risen to the highest level since 2023. This may be the layout made by large investors before Van Rossem was upgraded.
Cardano governance approved this hard fork on July 13, and the activation time is scheduled for July 18. Agencies have also urged infrastructure providers to update their software before networks cross hard fork boundaries. Van Rossem expects to reduce execution costs and make transactions and applications on Cardano cheaper to run. This upgrade will also prepare for the subsequent expansion and upgrade of Leios, which aims to improve transaction processing capabilities by the end of 2026.
This upgrade follows the Vasil upgrade, which was activated on September 22, 2022, significantly improving Cardano's network performance and smart contract efficiency.
Although whales continue to buy, the daily chart shows that the ADA is still blocked by Murray mathematical resistance of $0.1709. The Chaijin Fund Flow Indicator (CMF) remained slightly positive at 0.04, indicating that even as prices fell, buying pressure had not disappeared.
ADA faces liquidity pressure around US$0.160
On the 4-hour chart, ADA briefly broke through the downtrend line since its July high, but this breakthrough did not trigger a sustained rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 46.92, below its moving average of 50.95, indicating that kinetic energy is in a neutral short region but has not yet entered an oversold state.
The same chart shows that the recent main support for Murray Mathematics is at $0.1465. If the daily close stands above $0.1709, it will break through the bottom of the current trading range and make $0.1953 the next visible resistance level.
The three-day clearing heat chart shows that the most dense liquidity pool lies between US$0.160 and US$0.161, just below ADA's current market price. Another larger liquidity-intensive area appears around $0.170, which is highly consistent with the resistance level on the daily chart.
According to the heat chart, if the price falls below US$0.160, it may trigger the liquidation of long leveraged positions and put the US$0.1465 support level to a test. If the price exceeds US$0.170, it may force short covering positions and strengthen the rebound momentum when Van Rossem is upgraded online.
