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FollowingIn July, the FIFA World Cup pushed forecast market volumes to an all-time high monthly level. Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US combined for the month amounted to $50.59 billion, up 7.8 percent from $46.95 billion in June. [TAG Kalshi accounted for most of the volume, with $37.7 billion traded in the month, up 14 percent from June. Its single forecast market for Spain's World Cup final against Argentina attracted about $1.9 billion in trading volume. Polymarket's forecast market for championship events attracted approximately $4 billion.
Volume transfer between Polymarket platforms
July data also revealed the divergence between the two Polymarket platforms. Trading volume at major offshore platform Polymarket fell 26% to US$7.9 billion. At the same time, the company's domestic regulated platform, Polymarket US, grew 54% to $5 billion. Total transaction volume on Polymarket's two platforms fell from $14 billion to $12.9 billion.
Polymarket US is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and removed its waiting list in May and made it open to all U.S. users. Earlier this year, Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane estimated that in the 12 months ended April 30, 2026, U.S. traders accounted for approximately 30% of trading volume on Polymarket's main platform, indicating that some trading activity has since shifted to a licensed U.S. version.
Trading activity cools down after the World Cup
The event took place from June 11 to July 19, and trading volumes have declined since then. Open interest on the three platforms fell about 40 percent to $1.2 billion at the end of the month from about $2 billion at the beginning of July.
These platforms are also facing U.S. legal pressure. Regulators in more than a dozen states have accused Kalshi and Polymarket of operating unlicensed gambling businesses and have taken steps to block event contract trading in their states. The two platforms and the CFTC are disputing these enforcement actions and arguing that federal regulation takes precedence over state rules.
