SHIB prices once again face key resistance test

Quick overview of key points

The latest two attempts to recover the 100-day SMA ended in failure at the daily close.

The number of active receiving addresses soared to about 76,500, but fell quickly within a few days.

The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (approximately US$0.0000550) remains the greater resistance level.

Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) rose about 30% on July 26, before giving up most of the gains. As of press time, SHIB was trading at around $0.0000496, less than 3% below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Since July 27, the token has remained between the 50-day SMA (approximately $0.0000447) and the 100-day SMA (approximately $0.0000509). Buyers kept prices above the lower EMA but failed to close above the resistance level.

SHIB failed to hit the 100-day SMA twice

SHIB briefly broke through the 100-day SMA on August 1, but fell back below the EMA by the close. The August 2 high reached about $0.0000505 and stopped before hitting that moving average, before prices fell back.

Recent closing prices have improved and lows have remained relatively stable. However, the August 2 peak is still below the previous trading day's high, so the SHIB has not yet formed a clear sequence of higher highs.

If the daily closing price breaks through US$0.0000509, it will form a stronger breakthrough trend than briefly crossing the moving average again. Prices then need to stabilize above that level rather than immediately returning to volatile territory.

Kinetic energy has increased, but has not yet reached extreme states. The daily RSI indicator is around 62, above its moving average, but below the overbought area. Volume increased from the lighter period of July, but remained below the peak levels recorded during the July 25 - 26 rally.

If the SHIB continues to close below the 100-day SMA, recent lows (approximately US$0.0000460) constitute the latest support, followed by the 50-day moving average (approximately US$0.0000447).

The surge in addresses in July does not show a trend

CryptoQuant's active receiving address indicator is used to count the number of unique SHIB addresses receiving transfers during each observation period. The indicator soared to about 76,500 on July 6, then quickly fell back to a low of thousands, and stayed there for most of the time thereafter.

This surge suggests a large number of addresses received SHIBs, but the indicator cannot determine whether these addresses belong to new holders, exchanges, or existing investors transferring tokens between wallets. Exchange activity, wallet reorganization or other one-time online events can also contribute to this phenomenon.

The timing of this peak limits its correlation with price movements. Receiving activity returned to normal shortly after July 6, while the strongest rise in SHIB came nearly three weeks later.

Towards the end of the statistical cycle, this activity indicator rose slightly again, but the increase was still small compared to previous abnormal peaks.

Factors such as transaction value, exchange capital flows, new address growth and transaction volume will provide more background information on the nature of these transfers. If the indicator continues to grow for several weeks, it will be more evidence that SHIB is reaching a wider user base than the isolated peak on July 6.

Greater resistance is around US$0.0000550

If the daily closing price breaks through the 100-day SMA, the technical form of the daily chart will be improved. On the weekly chart, the more important resistance level is at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (approximately $0.0000550).

If it can stand above US$0.0000550 at the weekly level, it will push SHIB to break through the current short-term rebound range.

The upper resistance level is close at hand. On the 200th SMA was at around $0.0000570, followed by horizontal resistance around $0.0000580.

SHIB must first overcome the 100-day moving average to hit these higher resistance levels. Until then, prices will remain limited between short-term support and this moving average, which has prevented two recent attempts at a rally.