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Geometric probability: Solana mino traders make only 6% profits in 90 days

2026-08-20 12:40:24
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Meme token traders are still active, but only a few are profitable

In the past 90 days, most Meme tokens have extracted value from the crypto space. An ongoing monitoring indicator of Meme token traders shows that only 6.25% of wallets have become profitable in the past 90 days. A new dashboard designed for Meme token traders on the Solana chain shows that most traders are losing money.

In the past 90 days, a total of 304,161 traders have been active on Solana DEX. Among them, only 19,003 traders were profitable, while the median trader lost $120.

The biggest problem facing Meme token traders is the overall extraction of value. On-chain research shows that the Meme token trader community lost a total of US$1.26 billion based on book valuation. Of all profitable traders, 88% make less than $100.

This indicator tracks realized profits and losses rather than the book valuation of tokens held. In most cases, Meme tokens are less liquid, even if their market value is high.



Only 25 Solana Meme token traders have made more than US$10,000

Only 25 wallets have made more than US$10,000, indicating that the Meme space has lost the ability to create high valuations and has turned into a peer-to-peer value extraction market.

Meme token traders on the FOMO app showed a similar pattern, with only 25 wallets realizing realized gains of more than $10,000. | Source: Dune Analytics

Compared to betting or prediction platforms, or even general crypto speculative trading, current Meme tokens are less profitable. Despite this, the Meme token model is still attractive, with incentives including documentary transactions, KOL tokens, and point mining.

The Meme model has also changed, and there are very few long-lived Memes. Newly minted assets have extremely short lifetimes and do not aim to create communities.

Continued Meme activity has also promoted Pump.fun to become the top three platforms in fee revenue. As of August 19, the platform's daily expense revenue exceeded $4.4 million, the highest level since January.



Meme tokens survive despite the risk of loss

Despite the overall slowdown in the crypto market, Meme tokens survive as a viable model. The reason is that the issuance of Meme tokens occurs entirely on-chain, without waiting for the launch time of the centralized exchange, and without any restrictions.

On-chain issuance also partially solves the problem of selected tokens whose prices are pushed up by market makers. Meme tokens for new apps allow users to join instantly. New users have also bypassed Bitcoin and blue-chip tokens, which are now closer to mainstream finance.

Robinhood has increased utilization by providing fast Meme token issuance. Up to 51% of trading activity on Robinhood is based on Meme tokens. As of August 19, this trend began to reverse, with the Meme token value on Robinhood having evaporated by 10% overnight and falling by more than 30% in the past week.

Another factor driving Meme activities is the launch of the FOMO app, which has achieved a new round of mainstream adoption. The app attracted a large number of new users, who suffered losses almost immediately as soon as they came into contact with Meme transactions. The social trading feature of the FOMO app allows users to follow KOL, which leads to exaggerated valuations of multiple Meme tokens.

Meme tokens also attract new users through the latest platform launched by crypto KOL Ansem. In this case, there is an incentive for airdrops to use the platform, but the transaction itself may still lead to similar losses. Like other launch pads, users are waiting for "hot money" while suffering losses from more than 99% of Meme releases.

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