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Following
SHIB Moderate rise, not breakthrough market
Claude and Grok, two of the most widely used artificial intelligence models, both pointed out that by the end of 2026, the increase in $SHIB may be moderate rather than explosive as in 2021. The consensus view is more cautious: the conditions for a major breakthrough are not yet ripe.
Both models believe that SHIB's large and active community (often referred to as the "Shiba Inu Corps") is its most lasting asset. Community power helps increase awareness, drive social media trends and influence market sentiment. However, in the current environment, this alone is not enough to drive price changes.
Claude pointed out that the main obstacles include slowing Internet activity, limited token destruction and selling pressure near current price levels. When it comes to destruction, data supports this concern. Although destruction activities have experienced periodic peaks in 2026, they are still negligible compared to the circulating supply of approximately 589 trillion pieces. Even if the amount of destruction in a single day is extremely large, it only accounts for a very small proportion of the supply. Destruction is a long-term deflation tool, not a short-term price lever.
Shibarium adoption remains a key missing link
Grok believes ecosystem execution is another key variable, while Shibarium's on-chain data performance is mixed. The cumulative transaction volume of the network has exceeded 1.56 billion, but the daily active transaction volume fell below 2000 for most of early July before recovering briefly. DEX trading volume on Shibarium was zero between June 23 and the end of the month, and fell again after rising to $275 on July 10. The total value of lockups is far less than the billions of dollars locked in by competitors second-tier networks such as Arbitrum and Base.
As the market matures, the price trend of memes such as SHIB is increasingly dependent on fundamental factors, including Shibarium adoption rate, total value of locked positions, destruction rate and DeFi integration, rather than social popularity. Before these indicators show substantial improvement, there is no technical reason to support a sharp rise.
Both Claude and Grok believe that macro factors will ultimately determine the overall tone. The price of SHIB is highly correlated with the performance of the overall cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin in particular. A sustained memin rotation driven by the strength of Bitcoin will be the most likely catalyst for its significant excess returns. Without this motivation, SHIB will maintain range volatility in the short term.
