Arthur Hayes predicts: If the AI bubble bursts in 2028, Bitcoin may exceed $1 million

Arthur Hayes predicts: If the artificial intelligence bubble bursts around 2028, the price of Bitcoin may exceed US$1 million.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that if the artificial intelligence-driven bubble bursts around 2028, the price of Bitcoin may soar to more than US$1 million. In a recent comment, Hayes argued that the current AI boom is essentially a real estate and credit bubble, in which data center construction plays a role in large-scale real estate development. He suggested that a possible bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble between 2026 and 2028 could trigger a credit collapse similar to the 2008 financial crisis.

Hayes's Artificial Intelligence Bubble Theory

Hayes believes that the rapid expansion of the artificial intelligence field-especially the construction of data centers and power grids-is driven by cheap credit and speculative investment. He likened this to the housing bubble that led to the 2008 crash, when financial institutions came under severe pressure as loans linked to these assets deteriorated. In his view, if loans and investments related to artificial intelligence fail to produce expected returns, a similar scenario may occur again.

According to Hayes's analysis, Bitcoin was under pressure as funds poured into the artificial intelligence field, but he believes that the cryptocurrency is currently building a bottom in the range of US$60,000 to US$70,000. Even in the most extreme decline scenario, he expects Bitcoin to fall to only around $50,000 at most. This view provides a contrarian perspective on more pessimistic forecasts, suggesting that the market has fully absorbed major risks.

Potential policy responses and Bitcoin's role

Hayes also speculated on the U.S. government's response to the possible bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble. He believes policymakers are likely to print more dollars than during the 2008 crisis to bail out artificial intelligence companies and banks. This would lead to significant currency devaluation, which Hayes believes would benefit Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and capital mismatches.

In his analysis, Bitcoin serves as a "fire alarm" for capital markets, signaling when monetary policy is too loose or resources are misallocated. If the artificial intelligence bubble bursts, Hayes expects Bitcoin to soar to more than $1 million as investors seek safe haven in response to the devaluation of fiat currencies.

Market Impact and Background

Hayes's remarks came as Bitcoin prices showed resilience despite facing macroeconomic uncertainty. Although his $1 million goal appears extremely optimistic, it reflects a growing narrative among some cryptocurrency supporters: Bitcoin will benefit from long-term fiscal instability. However, it should be noted that Hayes 'predictions are speculative and are based on a series of specific assumptions about the field of artificial intelligence and government policies.

The key point for readers is that Hayes 'analysis highlights the interconnectedness between technology, credit markets, and cryptocurrencies. Even if the artificial intelligence bubble did not burst as he predicted, his insights emphasized the importance of monitoring macroeconomic trends and their potential impact on digital assets.

Conclusion

Arthur Hayes's prediction that if the artificial intelligence bubble bursts around 2028, the price of Bitcoin could exceed $1 million is a bold and thought-provoking view. Although this is not a consensus, it reminds people of the risks of speculative credit expansion in the artificial intelligence space and the consequences this could have for global markets. As always, investors should be cautious about such forecasts and consider multiple scenarios when making decisions.

FAQs

Question 1: Who is Arthur Hayes? Arthur Hayes is the co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX and a well-known figure in the crypto field. He is known for his market commentary and predictions.

Question 2: What exactly does Hayes refer to as the "artificial intelligence bubble"? Hayes is referring to the rapid investment and construction of artificial intelligence data centers and related infrastructure, which he believes is driven by credit and could create a financial bubble similar to the 2008 housing crisis.

Question 3: What is the benefit of the bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble for Bitcoin? Hayes believes that the bursting of the bubble will cause the government to print money to bail out affected institutions, which in turn will trigger a devaluation of the currency. As a deflationary asset, bitcoin's safe-haven demand may increase, pushing the price above $1 million.