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XRP Ripple (XRP) fell 0.92%, trading at US$1.03 in the past 24 hours, weaker than Bitcoin, which was basically flat. The timing is not favorable for XRP: ETF demand is cooling, the regulatory outlook remains unclear, and the token never seems to be able to recover key levels. In the past week, the XRP ETF attracted only approximately US$8.15 million in inflows, which is not comparable to the size of funds for Bitcoin and Ethereum products.
From the chart, XRP prices are still below their important moving average, continuing to test the $1.00 region, and buying has so far failed to strongly push it out of this range. Even the calendar is unfavorable: in previous U.S. midterm election years, the XRP of Ripple closed down in August.
Here are five reasons why XRP bulls need to be cautious.
1. XRP ETF capital inflows remain weak
The primary issue is institutional demand. Spot XRP ETF capital inflows were sluggish, recording only a net inflow of approximately US$8.15 million in the latest week. This is not enough to create a strong demand catalyst, especially as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to attract larger amounts of capital. If XRP prices are to continue to rise, ETF demand must improve. Previously, the lack of institutional buying made XRP more vulnerable to overall altcoin weakness.
2. XRP remains below all major moving averages
The technical side is also biased towards the short side. XRP prices remain below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), and the moving averages continue to decline. This creates a clear bearish structure over multiple time frames. Before the bears claim that the downtrend has been broken, XRP first needs to recover these moving averages.
3. US$1 support is under pressure
Currently, the US$1.00 region is the most important price for XRP. Prices continue to approach this psychological support level, and the recent structure has shown a series of lower highs. If the XRP price of Ripple falls below US$1.01 and fails to rebound above that level, the situation may deteriorate further. This will open the door to testing $0.98 again. If selling continues to exert pressure, lower levels will follow.
4. Regulatory clarity still missing
Regulatory issues still loom over XRP. The CLARITY Act has not yet received bipartisan support, so markets still lack the clear rules that many investors expect. This is crucial because clear rules will make it easier for large institutions to put money into assets such as XRP. Policymakers will continue to be cautious until substantial progress is made on the regulatory front.
5. XRP's August history is unfavorable
Historical data provides bulls with another reason for caution. It is worth noting that in previous U.S. midterm election years, XRP closed down in August. It fell by 5.7% in August 2014, 23% in 2018, and 13.7% in 2022. The average decline over the three years was about 14%. Of course, history does not guarantee a repeat this time, but it does provide traders with another consideration. For bulls to be truly persuasive, XRP prices need to return to the key moving average, hold on to the $1.00 level, and see stronger demand for ETFs. Until then, bullish reasons have struggled to gain a foothold.
FAQ
Why did XRP prices fall today? 
XRP prices are under pressure due to weak ETF inflows, regulatory uncertainty, and technical bearish prices-prices are below the 20th, 50th, 100th and 200th EMA.
Will XRP fall below $1?
If the US$1.00 support continues to fall below, the XRP price may be exposed to US$0.98, and if selling pressure increases, it may even hit a lower level.
Is XRP currently bullish or bearish?
XRP showed a bearish pattern in the short term, as prices remained below the main moving average, ETF demand was weak, and tokens continued to trade near the US$1 support level.
