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FollowingThe pound against the dollar is stable near the February 11 high, and the bulls are waiting to break through the resistance level of 1.3660.
Against the background of the overall weakening of the dollar, the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar is approaching the February 11 high. The bulls are focused on whether they can break through the key resistance level of 1.3660 to achieve a decisive breakthrough.
Market background: Strengthening British pound vs weakening US dollar
As of mid-February 2025, the exchange rate of British pound against US dollar was boosted by stronger-than-expected UK economic data and continued weakness of the US dollar. As markets reassess the Fed's timetable for interest rate cuts, the US dollar index has fallen from recent highs; while the Bank of England, although cautious, its stance is still not dovish compared to the Fed.
Technical traders are closely watching the 1.3660 level-a resistance level that has suppressed upward attempts since early February. If the price clearly breaks through this level, it may open up space for subsequent gains, and the next psychological barrier is at 1.3700. However, if a breakthrough fails, it may enter a consolidation stage or fall back to near the 1.3580 support level.
Fundamentals driving the trend
The resilience of the pound stems from improving economic sentiment in the UK. Recent better-than-expected purchasing managers 'index (PMI) data and the labor market remain tight, supporting the Bank of England's stance of maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period of time. In contrast, U.S. economic indicators showed signs of cooling, prompting investors to bet that the Federal Reserve will conduct a more aggressive rate cut this year.
Geopolitical factors and risk appetite also play a role. A stable global risk environment favours higher-yielding currencies such as sterling, while the dollar is under pressure from safe-haven outflows.
What to watch next
Traders should pay close attention to the upcoming UK inflation data as well as the number of US initial jobless claims to judge the short-term direction. A higher-than-expected UK CPI reading could boost sterling, while dovish comments from Fed officials could accelerate dollar weakness. Technically, a steady daily close above 1.3660 will confirm bullish momentum and may attract more buying.
Conclusion
GBP is at a critical juncture against the US dollar, and bulls need to continue to stand above 1.3660 to continue their gains. The fundamentals are in favor of the pound, but resistance levels are crucial. Traders should wait for the confirmation signal before arranging a breakthrough.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: What is the significance of the 1.3660 level to GBP/USD?
1.3660 is a technical resistance level that has suppressed upward attempts since early February. Breaking through this level could signal a further increase in prices to 1.3700.
Q2: Why did the US dollar weaken against the British pound?
The U.S. dollar is under pressure due to market expectations of a Fed rate cut, while the relatively strong British economic data supports the pound.
Q3: What factors may trigger a breakthrough of 1.3660?
A stronger-than-expected UK inflation report or a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve could be catalysts for a breakthrough. Technical momentum and daily closing prices stabilizing above this level will also be confirmed.
