Exchange Ranking
Top Exchanges
24h Volume Ranking
Popularity Ranking
Exchange BTC Balance
Proof of Reserves
Decentralized Exchanges
Funding Rate
Funding Heatmap
Liquidation Data
Max Pain
Long/Short Ratio
Whale L/S Ratio
Binance/Okex/Huobi L/S
Bitfinex Margin L/S
ETF Tracker
Solana ETF
XRP ETF
Hong Kong ETF
Bitcoin Treasuries
Crypto Reversal
Ethereum Reserves
HyperLiquid Wallet Analysis
Hyperliquid Whale Watch
Large Transactions
On-chain Movement
Bitcoin ROI
Stablecoin Market Cap
Options Analysis
News
Articles
Economic Calendar
Features
Wallet
Contract Calculator
Security
Collections
Watchlist
FollowingPolymarket traders predict that the box office of "Spider-Man: A New Chapter" will exceed US$280 million in the first weekend, far exceeding the film's expectations.
Polymarket traders currently believe that the probability of "Spider-Man: A New Chapter" breaking through US$280 million in the domestic box office this weekend is as high as 91%, which is much higher than the producer's estimate.
Core Data
Data given by traders shows that the probability of the film's sequel exceeding US$280 million in the domestic first weekend box office is 91%, and the probability of exceeding US$350 million is 36%. Sony's own forecast is about $195 million, while independent analysts 'forecast range is between $230 million and $274 million. The box office of advance screenings on Thursday exceeded US$50 million, setting the third-highest mark in U.S. and Canadian film history.
Polymarket forecasts far exceed Sony's expectations
On Friday morning, based on traders 'reaction to early box office games on Thursday, the contract priced the probability of this outcome at 91%, up from about 86% a day earlier. Thursday's early box office performance exceeded all filmmakers and analysts 'expectations. Another market that covers a higher box office range currently predicts a 36% probability of opening weekend box office exceeding US$350 million, a result that will surpass all domestic premiere box office records. About $60,800 has changed hands since trading opened on July 24.
Sony and Marvel Pictures have remained conservative throughout the promotion period, with the film company predicting a domestic first-weekend box office of approximately US$195 million and a global first-weekend box office of US$465 million. Independent analysts 'forecasts were even higher, falling between $230 million and $274 million, with several analysts raising their forecasts in the final week as pre-sales data continued to climb. All of these forecasts now seem conservative.
Advance opening box office records push up Spider-Man forecasts
Advance opening box office hit $50 million on Thursday, the third-highest record in history in the United States and Canada, and the best opening night performance of any film in Sony's history. This figure also exceeded the record of $38.5 million set after the epidemic. According to reports, the film has a net production budget of US$225 million and pre-sale box office has reached approximately US$80 million, a buffer that very few films can enjoy before their first Friday release.
The sequel, by director Destin Daniel Creighton, accounted for 49% of the scheduled schedules this weekend in approximately 4300 theaters in North America, more than double the scheduled schedule for the opening weekend of "The Odyssey" that was released two weeks ago. Audience ratings are as high as 98%, ranking first among all nine live-action Spider-Man films, and critics also have a rating of 90%.
The first weekend record of "Battle of End" may not be guaranteed
Only nine films in history have exceeded US$200 million in a single domestic weekend. Box office history rankings show that "Avengers 4: Endgame" ranked first (2019) with $357.1 million, followed by "Spider-Man: No Heroes Return" with $260.1 million and "Avengers 3: Infinite War" with $257 million. If "A New Chapter" reaches $280 million in its opening weekend box office, Tom Holland and Zandaya will leap to second place.
Traders have been optimistic about the theater market throughout the summer, because once movie tickets are on sale, the company's tracking data often underestimate the actual results, a pattern that has been repeated in many blockbusters this season. "Odyssey" grossed more than $120 million in the first weekend of this month, compared with previous forecasts of about $100 million. The film then topped $300 million in domestic box office in two weeks, redefining expectations for the rest of the summer.
