Optimism expects OP in circulation to increase by 343 million

Optimism releases its fourth-year budget update and fifth-year outlook

On August 6, Optimism released its fourth-year budget update and fifth-year outlook, predicting that by April 2027, the circulation supply will reach 2.504 billion OPs.

Summary

Optimism predicts that by April 2027, the circulation supply will reach 2.504 billion OPs, accounting for 58.3% of the total supply.

The five-year outlook includes: 200 million ecosystem tokens and 47.6 million contributor tokens will enter circulation.

Optimism committed approximately 150 million OPs in its fourth year, a decrease of one-third from the previous year.

Based on the current outlook, there will be no airdrops or retrospective reward payments in the fifth year.

The monthly transaction volume of the OP main network has increased by more than 60%, and more than 9 million tokens have been acquired in repurchase.

The project reported a total supply of 4.295 billion units, of which the above figure represents 58.3%.

Foundation shows that from May 2026 to April 2027, approximately 343 million OPs may enter circulation. Optimism said in an official update that it has not applied for a new token allocation and will continue to operate within the original allocation framework.

Optimism budget to invest 200 million OPs in ecosystems

Ecosystem funds are the largest category in the fifth year, with 200 million OPs expected to go into circulation. Optimism also expects to release 47.6 million OPs to early core contributors, 15.3 million to investors, and 10 million from governance funds.

During this period, no OPs with airdrops or retroactive rewards are expected to enter circulation. However, these figures are not final data.

The foundation describes these as "directional estimates" and says "adjustments will be made based on project performance and governance opinions."

The fifth-year category listed totals 272.9 million OPs. However, the volume in circulation increased from 2.161 billion at the beginning of the reporting period to the target of 2.504 billion, an increase of approximately 343 million. The announcement did not specify the source of the remaining 70.1 million OPs or explain the difference.

The second difference also needs clarification. The budget announcement showed 2,160,975,703 OPs in circulation as of August 6, while Optimism's public tracker showed 2,286,467,356 OPs on the same day. The announcement did not explain the difference between approximately 125.5 million OPs.

Spending fell in the fourth year, and broad incentives were suspended.

Optimism said that about 150 million new OPs were committed in the fourth year, about one-third less than the 229.92 million committed in the third year. The volume of governance fund tokens in circulation fell 53% to 13.4 million; the volume of retrospective rewards issued fell 30% to 14.2 million.

No user airdrops occurred during the period. Retroactive rewards are also suspended after final tasks are paid out in Season 7. The foundation said that 777.6 million OPs (90.5%) of the original allocation of the plan are still available for future rewards.

Ecosystem fund circulation increased 53% to 208.5 million OPs. But the foundation said the increase does not represent the same amount of new spending, and most of the circulation is attributed to previously approved partner grants reaching vesting dates or completing necessary milestones.

As mentioned earlier, the entry of tokens into circulation may increase the available supply, but this does not mean that the recipient will sell its tokens.

OP Enterprise becomes the main spending strategy

The Foundation stated that future deployments will focus on developing the OP main network and acquiring OP Enterprise customers. The agency service was launched in January and is available to exchanges, payment companies and financial institutions. It provides three levels: Fully Managed, Self Managed and OP Mainnet.

This strategy has led to agreements with Bitpanda's Vision Chain, Kraken-backed Ink, and Dunamu's GIWA Chain. Bitpanda plans to launch Vision Chain through its Fully Managed service, while Ink expects to complete its Fully Managed transition in August.

Upbit operator Dunamu chose the Self Managed tier, a structure that allows Dunamu to operate the network while receiving Optimism support.

Optimism also cited the deployment of ether.fi on the OP main network, reporting that there are more than 70,000 active cards and a total lockdown value of US$220 million. These data come from foundations and should be regarded as corporate reporting indicators.

The repurchase scale is still less than the expected liquidity growth

Optimism governance has approved a 12-month plan to use 50% of eligible Superchain revenue for monthly OP purchases. Budget updates said that as of August 6, the program had acquired more than 9 million OPs.

The governance body approved the plan in January. The first disclosed purchase used 95.8 ETH and acquired approximately 1.57 million OPs.

Purchased tokens are stored in the Collective Treasury rather than permanently destroyed. The proposal would leave the future governance body to decide whether the OPs purchased back would be destroyed, used for ecosystem funds, or allocated for other functions.

The repurchase volume of more than 9 million OPs is well below the 343 million circulation growth implied by the opening and closing budget figures. This comparison does not predict future price performance because circulation, treasury holdings and market sales measure different token flows.

What happens next for OP supply

The foundation will continue to evaluate spending based on OP mainnet growth and corporate customer acquisition, and plans to release the next annual budget update and six-year outlook by June 2027.

Before then, investors need a checked supply schedule. Category forecasts, declared opening supplies, and real-time trackers currently present different totals. Until Optimism provides further explanation, the end point of 2.504 billion pieces should be regarded as a directional forecast by the foundation rather than a fully checked unlocking timetable.