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ADA Key Points
Contents
Key Points
Cardano is currently trading in the range of US$0.161 to US$0.163. Prices are facing slight downward pressure as short positions dominate market sentiment.
Large households holding 100,000 to 100 million ADA tokens have purchased a total of 25.65 billion ADA tokens, which is the highest accumulation rate since February 2023.
The network upgrade "Van Rossem" is scheduled to be activated on July 18, which will reduce transaction fees and enhance smart contract capabilities.
Derivatives market data showed open interest in futures climbed to US$421 million to US$445 million, while a long-short ratio of 0.58 reflected bearish sentiment.
The key liquidity areas are located at US$0.160 and US$0.170, which may determine ADA's recent price trend.
As of July 16 - 17, Cardano (ADA) prices hovered between US$0.161 and US$0.163, a slight decrease of approximately 1.39% from the previous period, mainly due to the bearish layout of bears ahead of the upcoming network upgrade.
On July 16, the ADA price range ranged from US$0.1611 to US$0.1664, down from the high near US$0.195 in early July.
However, under the appearance of falling prices, institutional investors are actively attracting funds. Addresses holding 100,000 to 100 million ADA tokens have expanded their holdings to 25.65 billion ADA tokens-a level unseen since February 2023.
Source: Sanitation
Retail investors performed differently. Address holdings holding fewer than 100 ADAs fell by about 0.7% compared to four months ago, revealing differences in the behavior of institutional and retail investors.
Futures market indicators show a bearish tendency in the short term. According to CoinGlass, the ADA's weighted funding rate is at-0.0067%, indicating that short holders are paying compensation to long traders. The long and short ratio was 0.58, while open interest increased slightly by 4% to approximately US$421 million to US$445 million.
Van Rossem hard fork: Coming soon
The Van Rossem hard fork was approved by Cardano's governance structure on July 13 and is scheduled to go live on July 18. Intersect, the member-driven organization responsible for managing the Cardano ecosystem, has recommended that all infrastructure operators complete software updates before transitioning.
Update: Cardano approves the Van Rossem hard fork
@Cardano has officially approved the Van Rossem hard fork and is scheduled to be activated on July 18, 2026 at 21:45 UTC, following approval from DReps, SPOs and the Constitutional Council. This upgrade will enhance Plutus smart contract capabilities...
Van Rossem will provide enhanced Plutus capabilities and lower execution costs, enabling more cost-effective transactions and decentralized applications on the Cardano network. The upgrade also lays the foundation for Leios, a throughput enhancement plan planned to be deployed by the end of 2026 to expand transaction processing capabilities.
From a technical perspective, the ADA is below the Murrey Math resistance level of $0.1709 on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is between 44 and 46.92, indicating momentum is in a neutral to moderately bearish region. The MACD indicator shows weak positive momentum.
Key price levels should be focused on
Resistance levels are at US$0.173 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), US$0.179 (50-day exponential moving average), and denser areas between US$0.195 and US$0.207. Support is close to $0.150, while the June 25 low of $0.1382 is lower.
CoinGlass's liquidation heat chart shows a concentrated liquidity pool between $0.160 and $0.161 just below the current trading range. Another significant funding gathering area appeared around $0.170. A break below $0.160 could trigger the liquidation of long positions and push the ADA to $0.1465. Conversely, a breakthrough of $0.170 could force short positions and push prices back.
Market analyst Celal Kucuker shared his views on platform X, predicting that Cardano will hit a record high of US$5, citing bullish deviations in the weekly RSI and believing that the current region is a bottom pattern. He expects a parabolic rise starting from current price levels.
Cardano will hit a record high of $5. I expect a parabolic rally to begin. We are in the bottom area. Weekly RSI shows bullish divergence.$ ADA
