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FollowingLess than a day after Marvel's first full version of "Avengers: The Doomsday" trailer was released, it received more than 33 million views on YouTube. However, traders on the Polymarket platform predicted the price of the film at only 18%.
Core Points:
·The first full trailer of "The Avengers: The Doomsday" went online on Monday and was pre-sold on the same day. The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on December 18.
·Polymarket predicts that the film will become the box office champion in 2026 is 18%, which is far lower than the 59% for Spider-Man: The New Era.
·The same platform predicts that the probability of "Doomsday" winning the best opening weekend of the year is as high as 75%, which shows that the market has doubts about its schedule rather than a lack of confidence in its demand.
Marvel Pictures releases full trailer for "Doomsday"
Marvel Pictures released the trailer on Monday morning and opened pre-sales simultaneously. This pre-sale is associated with the company's new premium large-format certification "Infinite Vision". The film is scheduled to be released in theaters five months later on December 18. The trailer shows for the first time Robert Downey Jr. as Dr. Destruction, who will confront heroes from three different universes, in an event Marvel describes as an "existential crisis." Before the trailer was released, Marvel had been promoting the characters for months. Within 24 hours of its release, the trailer had more than 33 million views on YouTube, and received approximately 1 million views in the first half hour of its release. Directed by Anthony Russell and Joe Russell, the film brings together the characters of the Avengers, the Fantastic Four, the X-Men and Wakanda. The film will also bring an end to Marvel's multiverse storyline that has continued since "Battle of the End", while "Avengers: The Secret War" is scheduled to be released in 2027.
Polymarket odds show "Spider-Man" leads "Doomsday"
Predictions on Polymarket for the highest-grossing film of 2026 give a more sober conclusion: "Spider-Man: The New Era", which opens on July 31, has a 59% chance of leading, while "The Doomsday" has only 18%. The volume of contracts related to "Doomsday" is approximately US$310,000, the highest of any film in the market. Since the market opened in November last year, total transactions have reached US$7.26 million. The gap between the two is mainly due to the scheduling, not the film clip itself. The contract is based on Box Office Mojo data and is settled based on the total domestic box office in North America as of December 31, while box office outside of 2026 is not included in the total box office of any film. Marvel's new film has less than two weeks in the settlement window, while "Spider-Man" has a full five-month box office accumulation period.
Opening weekend betting and the box office history of the Avengers series
Polymarket's other independent contracts still predict that "Doomsday" has a 71% chance of becoming the No. 1 box office opening week in North America in 2026, and a 75% chance of winning the best opening weekend. This suggests that traders are questioning the release schedule, not the film itself. Marvel's recent box office performance has been unstable when it launches a new film this time. The total box office of the previous four "Avengers" films exceeded US$7.7 billion, of which "The Battle of the End" still ranks second in the box office list in film history. However, none of the three Marvel Movies Universe releases last year met box office expectations. Before the full trailer was released on Monday, the four character trailers received a total of 1.02 billion views. These pre-heated content had greatly increased expectations before the full trailer was released.
