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Analysts outline two market scenarios after July employment data

2026-08-08 00:49:13
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The U.S. non-farm employment data in July fell short of expectations, and the response of the cryptocurrency market was flat.

Employment data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 7 showed that the U.S. economy's non-farm employment decreased by 23,000 in July., while the market originally expected an increase of 80,000 to 85,000. The number of unemployed people in July was 6.9 million, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said lower-than-expected employment data raised two different possibilities. He pointed out that if the data is "moderately lower than expected", it may trigger market expectations that the Fed will have more room for policy easing, thereby providing support for risky assets including cryptocurrencies. But analysts warned that if "significant weakness" in the data triggers recession concerns, it could trigger risk aversion first before optimistic expectations about the prospect of interest rate cuts could be followed. "In either case, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to be completely independent of market fluctuations," Lee said. He further pointed out that only after volatility removes weak positions, coupled with subsequent inflation data, the Federal Reserve's stance and broader liquidity conditions, can cryptocurrencies move further higher.

After the release of July employment data, there was no significant reaction in the cryptocurrency market. As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) was quoted at US$64,904.28, Ethereum (ETH) was quoted at US$1,913.48, and Ripple (XRP) was quoted at US$1.03.

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