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BTC Bitcoin's bottom is set: closer than you think
Since Bitcoin began to depreciate rapidly in the fourth quarter of last year, the most concerned question for the cryptocurrency community is: How deep can it fall? The next question is: When and where will we hit the bottom?
Analysts began to speculate after every decline. At first, when Bitcoin fell to $60,000 in February, people thought that was the bottom. However, a few months later, it plunged again to 59,000 and 58,000, and even briefly fell below that level on July 1. Therefore, the specific numbers at the bottom are also constantly changing. Today, well-known analyst Rekt Fencer cites historical data to accurately point out the bottom date.
October 2026: This is the moment
In a tweet on August 13, the market commentator pointed out that there are 53 days left before the market slumber and downturn period ends (now, as two days have passed, 51 days remain). His prediction is based on previous Bitcoin cycles: bull markets last approximately 1064 days, while subsequent bear markets take approximately 364 days to find a final bottom. This rule may seem simple, but it is surprisingly consistent.
Bitcoin's bull market cycle from the bottom of 2015 to the peak of 2017 lasted exactly 1064 days. It took another 364 days for the painful bear market before the cryptocurrency finally hit bottom in December 2018.
History repeats itself almost perfectly: from the bottom of 2018 to the peak of November 2021, another 1064-day bull market. Guess what? It was followed by another 364-day decline that ultimately ended at a bear market low in 2022.
What's even more exciting: Bitcoin's latest bull market cycle lasts from late 2022 to October 2025. Yes, it was about 1064 days again. If the second half of this pattern is repeated as accurately as the first half, then Rekt Fencer believes the next bottom will come on October 5, 2026.
Bitcoin has 53 days left.
The macro cycle is almost perfect:
2015→2017 Bull Market: 1064 days
2017→2018 Bear Market: 364 days
2018→2021 Bull Market: 1064 days
2021→2022 Bear Market: 364 days
2022→2025 Bull Market: 1064 days
If the pattern repeats again:
2025→2026 Bear Market: 364 Days...
Focus on October
This screenshot shared by Rekt Fencer is very popular in the cryptocurrency community because of its astonishing accuracy. The previous two major Bitcoin bear markets took approximately 363 days and 376 days respectively, moving from the peak of the cycle to the final panic low.
Applying this time frame to Bitcoin's historical high in October 2025 gives you a potential bottom window: approximately between October 4 and 17 this year. Ali Martinez recently raised almost the same possibility, except that his dates range from October 6 to 16.
There are obvious problems with over-reliance on specific calendar models. Bitcoin's previous cycles developed in a completely different macroeconomic environment. Today's markets include spot ETFs, large institutional holders, corporate treasuries, different regulatory environments, and deeper integration with TradFi.
Interest rates, liquidity, ETF flows, geopolitical developments, and Fed policies can all easily break the most precise patterns. Therefore, October 5th (or 6th to 16th) should not be regarded as a predetermined date, and Bitcoin must break out of its lowest price at this moment and then explode to new highs within days, weeks or even months.
But then again, having a North Star like reference is always a good thing. October 2026 has quickly become the month that every cryptocurrency investor circles on the calendar.
