Bitfinex analysts: Bitcoin has limited downside above $76,350

Bitcoin fluctuates around the active investor cost base, markets tend to balance after August gains

Bitcoin has consolidated for five trading days in the US$76,500 to US$79,500 range, with its active investor cost base (US$76,350) absorbing selling pressure after August's 24.9% gain.

Summary

Bitcoin's real market average is at US$76,350, slightly below the current trading range. Long-term holders of SOPR were close to breakeven for nine consecutive trading days, indicating limited profit-taking. September options have downside protection in the range of $68,000 to $75,000, while call options are biased to exceed $80,000. Strategy purchased 4,603 bitcoins for US$369.7 million, and demand for spot bitcoin ETFs cooled during the same period.

Bitfinex analysts pointed out in a September 2 report that despite an average loss of 2.95% in September since 2013, a higher bitcoin price than the real market average reduces the risk of a deep correction. The real market average measures the average cost basis for active Bitcoin investors, which was $76,350 at the time of the report's release. Since Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh delivered a hawkish speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, Bitcoin has remained between $76,500 and $79,500, with fluctuations of only 3%.

Selling pressure appeared near the upper edge of the range, but buyers successfully prevented Bitcoin's closing price from clearly falling below the chain's cost basis. Bitfinex describes the $76,350 as a market pivot point rather than a fixed price that buyers must strictly hold on. At the close of August, Bitcoin rose 24.9% from the monthly opening price of US$62,922, the first time since 2021 that it has closed in August and the largest monthly increase since November 2024. According to previous reports, this round of gains made $80,000 the main resistance level entering September.

Bitcoin momentum shows limited correction

According to Bitfinex data, Bitcoin rose US$14,833 in the week ending August 23, the largest weekly dollar gain in history. This increase is $3,275 higher than the previous record set in November 2024, and has a weekly return of 23.6%, the strongest percentage increase since March 2023. Historical data cited in the report shows that since 2020, Bitcoin has experienced 17 weekly increases of more than 15%. Among them, 14 times the price was higher 30 days later, with a median return of 8.4%.

Based on this record, analysts believe that as long as Bitcoin remains above the previous resistance level of $68,000, the correction is likely to be "short and limited." This price is also close to the area where traders centrally set down option protection. Despite two risks related to the United States, Bitcoin's strength continues. Walsh's speech raised expectations for another rate hike, while renewed conflict between the United States and Iran pushed Brent crude to around $95 a barrel.

Walsh said inflation was improving not fast enough to convince policymakers that inflation was returning to the Fed's 2% target. In early reports of Walsh Jackson Hole's speech, market traders were forecast to set the probability of a rate hike in 2026 at 68%, after Bitcoin fell below $80,000. Higher U.S. interest rates could push up Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, increasing the cost of holding non-yielding assets. Despite this, Bitfinex found that Bitcoin's price structure remained intact for the five trading days after the speech.

Sellers exit near break-even point

On-chain spending data shows that investors who buy Bitcoin near the current price provide most of the available supply. SOPR for long-term holders fluctuated between 0.88 and 1.19 for nine consecutive trading days, compared with 0.98 when the report was released. A reading of 1 means that the average selling price of each token is the same as the buying price of its holder.

Bitfinex linked this pattern to buyers in February and March who held on in subsequent declines and began selling when Bitcoin returned to its entry price. For five consecutive trading days, buying orders absorbed this supply and did not allow prices to fall below the real market average. Analysts said two continuing changes would weaken this interpretation: SOPR fell below 0.9 when Bitcoin fell, indicating that holders accepted a loss to exit; and a rise above 1.1 indicating that investors with large unrealized gains were selling on the rise.

The concentration of supply near the current range explains why Bitcoin prices are consolidating sideways. When Bitcoin closed at $80,256 on August 27, 71.2% of the circulating supply was profitable. When the price closed at $77,468, the ratio dropped to 67.7%. Bitfinex calculates that the cost base of approximately 880,000 bitcoins lies within the $2,800 spread between the two closing prices. Every time a price crosses this zone, a large number of tokens are converted between profit and loss, changing the motivation to sell.

Meanwhile, the short-term holder cost base is US$69,980 and is rising at a rate of approximately US$300 per day. Bitfinex sees this as potential support for a deeper pullback, below the initial target of $73,500.

Strategy's buying offset weakening Bitcoin ETF funds flow

Corporate demand resurfaced when Bitcoin encountered passive sellers above $77,000. Strategy purchased 4,603 bitcoins for US$369.7 million between August 24 and 30, with an average unit price of US$80,318. This was Strategy's first time in ten weeks that it bought Bitcoin, and its holdings increased to 845,050 at an average cost of US$75,412. According to company documents, the transaction was completed through stock market financing.

Strategy's average purchase price is above every daily closing price of Bitcoin since May 14. As a result, the company bought in the same area where prices were difficult to maintain above $79,000. During the same period, demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs became less stable. Nine consecutive trading days of net inflows totaling $3.04 billion ended with a redemption of $201.9 million on the day of Walsh's speech on August 28. Then on Monday, net inflows recovered to $216.7 million, of which $205.9 million went to BlackRock's IBIT. On September 1, there was another outflow of US$236.5 million, mainly driven by IBIT.

Another independent analysis and assessment believes that continued ETF buying is one of the conditions for continuing the rally. The same report pointed out that when Bitcoin exceeded US$76,000 on August 20, spot products recorded a net inflow of US$606 million. Despite cooling demand for bitcoin funds, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF attracted a net inflow of US$815.7 million in the previous week and extended the inflow momentum to September 1, with net inflows for 13 consecutive trading days. Bitfinex said Strategy's re-purchase would help offset slowing demand for Bitcoin ETFs.

The supply of stablecoins also stopped expanding after growing by US$1.25 billion before Washh's speech. The report showed that the total market value peaked at US$30.94 billion on August 28 and then fell to US$30.383 billion. Bitfinex interprets this change as capital waiting at the entrance to the market rather than leaving the crypto market through a continued wave of stablecoin redemptions. Stabilocins are often used as clearing assets for traders, and changes in their total supply can be measured by deployable capital.

Bitcoin options are biased towards bullish and leverage has not been excessively accumulated

Options traders bought protection around the release of U.S. economic data, but positions did not show widespread bearish bets on Bitcoin. The average implied volatility remained at 37.2 for the sixth consecutive trading day, between 37 and 38, and was in the 18th percentile of daily closing prices over the past year. Option prices are below one-fifth of the trading day levels, compared with a 2026 low of 33.8. The implied volatility remains below the 30-day realized volatility of approximately 41%. Bitfinex said the pricing suggests traders expect the current compression to continue, although Bitcoin fluctuated 21% over three trading days in August.

The cost of a flat span option expiring on September 11 is US$3,208 and requires a 4.13% fluctuation to break even. Unlike options that expire on September 4, the contract covers the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, producer price index release and seven standard trading days. According to Bitfinex data, Bitcoin fluctuated by an average of 1.9% on the release day during the eight U.S. non-agricultural releases in 2026. Four of them fluctuated below 1%, and the remaining four fluctuated between 2.4% and 4.4%.

Downward protection from the non-farm to consumer price index window is concentrated in the range of US$68,000 to US$75,000. For contracts expiring on September 11, the ratio of put options to call options is 1:1, while the overall options market has a put and call ratio of 0.56. The maximum open interest on call options is US$80,000, and the open interest on put options is concentrated at US$75,500. Perpetual contract leverage remains 10% below its August peak, which Bitfinex interprets as traders retaining upside exposure while avoiding rebuilding large positions that are susceptible to forced liquidations.

Under the basic scenario reported, Bitcoin will remain between $76,657 and $81,300 during the U.S. data window from September 4 to 11. If the closing price is above US$82,818 for two consecutive trading days, SOPR is above 1 and ETF funds are net inflows for two consecutive days, the channel will be opened for the next cost benchmark (approximately US$85,200). Conversely, if the closing price falls below US$76,657 in both trading days, it will trigger Bitfinex's retracement scenario, first touching the three to six month holder cost benchmark of approximately US$73,500, and then the short-term holder cost benchmark of US$69,980.