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BTC Three major AI predicts Bitcoin's trend in 2026: falling to 30,000 or soaring to 100,000?
In October 2025, Bitcoin soared to a record high of more than $126,000. However, in the following months, the market mania subsided and bears began to dominate the situation. By early summer, the situation deteriorated further, with Bitcoin falling below $60,000. However, buyer power stepped in recent days and pulled the price back to the current $64,000.
There is fierce debate on the X platform over whether Bitcoin has reached the bottom of the current cycle, is about to usher in a major bull market, or whether the worst moment has yet to come. To that end, we decided to ask three popular AI chatbots what they thought was more likely to happen this year: whether it would fall to $30,000 or rise to $100,000.
ChatGPT's View
OpenAI's model evaluation believes that Bitcoin is more likely to climb to the $100,000 milestone sometime in 2026, given current price levels and the recent stable market driven by better-than-expected U.S. CPI data.
Looking back, the U.S. inflation rate dropped to 3.5%, triggering a significant rise in the entire cryptocurrency market. The response is logical because lower inflation reduces pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates and even increases the likelihood of interest rates in coming months-a change that typically benefits riskier assets.
At the same time, ChatGPT pointed out that soaring to $100,000 will not be easy for Bitcoin because it remains highly dependent on geopolitical tensions, monetary policy, and institutional interest. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETF funds have continued to flow out significantly in the past few months, indicating that conservative investors such as pension funds and hedge funds have reduced their exposure to the asset. Historically, institutional demand has been crucial to Bitcoin's performance and has often synchronized with rising markets.
The chatbot said that the possibility of Bitcoin plummeting to US$30,000 later this year is not entirely non-existent, but the probability is much lower and requires a black swan event, such as the collapse of a crypto giant or a global recession.
To sum up, ChatGPT estimates that the probability of Bitcoin climbing to US$100,000 before the end of the year is about 45%, the probability of plummeting to US$30,000 is 15%, and the probability that neither scenario will happen is 40%.
"My most realistic year-end price range is about US$70,000 to US$90,000. If Bitcoin can regain its footing at US$75,000 to US$80,000 and demand for ETFs increases, then the US$100,000 goal will become realistic." It added.
Which possibility does other AI prefer?
Perplexity agrees with ChatGPT's theory, but says neither outcome is the most likely scenario for the rest of the year. It pointed out that the "reasonable" maximum price that Bitcoin can achieve in 2026 is approximately between $70,000 and $80,000.
Google's Gemini said that from a "mathematical and structural" perspective, Bitcoin is more likely to rise to $100,000 than to fall to $30,000.
"For Bitcoin to fall to $30,000, it must be about 30% lower than the average cost price for almost all investors in the market. This only happens in brief, systematic black swan events (such as the COVID-19 crash in March 2020)." It explained.
