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BTC After experiencing a decline in June, leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin remained above $60,000. One analyst pointed out that a key indicator that could signal a bottom out of the bitcoin market's bear market cycle is beginning to resurface.
Cryptovizart, an analyst from online analytics platform Glassnode, analyzed investors (he called "holders") who have held Bitcoin for one to two years. He pointed out that the number of losses sold by these investors, especially those who have held Bitcoin in the past 1 to 2 years, has decreased, which historically has often marked the final stage of a bear market. Analysts believe that market selling pressure will peak when this group sells loss positions due to disappointment, and the decrease in selling from this group is seen as one of the earliest signs of a bottom.
data showed that the losses of these investors showed a downward trend and reversed after the 30-day moving average exceeded US$75 million. Analysts said the indicator had also signaled in past cycles that the selling peak was over and the market was beginning to bottom.
"... When the 30-day moving average (30D-SMA), which has realized losses, turns downward and enters sideways consolidation, this is often one of the clearest early signals that the market's most intense distribution phase is over."
However, analysts also pointed out that a reduction in losses in itself does not constitute a clear bottom signal, but only serves as a reliable leading indicator in previous market cycles, and recommended paying close attention to this data.
In addition, Glassnode analysts mentioned in the weekly report that the cost base for short-term investors is about US$69,000, which may become an important support and resistance level for Bitcoin prices in the future.
* This is not investment advice.
