Cardano price forecast: Can ADA break through $0.19 after a hard fork?

Cardano prices are still under pressure after the activation of van Rossem hard fork. Can ADA break through key resistance?

Although the Cardano Network completed the activation of the van Rossem hard fork, ADA prices remained under pressure on Monday, with traders currently focusing on whether the token can break through the next major resistance area.

Summary

Cardano prices are still hovering around US$0.16, with weak momentum after the van Rossem hard fork limiting gains. The ADA needs to stand back at $0.17 and $0.19 to see a more obvious reversal of the broader downtrend. Funding rates are providing some support, but a long-short ratio below 1 suggests that traders are still cautious about recovery.

As of writing, the ADA trading price was approximately US$0.162, down approximately 2% in 24 hours. The token has remained largely flat over the past month after a prolonged decline from around $0.90 to $1.00. Its market value is approximately US$6.06 billion and its daily trading volume is approximately US$240 million.

The latest price movement occurred after Cardano was upgraded to version 11 of the protocol via a van Rossem hard fork. This network upgrade has improved some functions of the Plutus smart contract framework and laid the foundation for future expansion work, but has not yet driven ADA prices to continue to rise.

Cardano prices struggle above US$0.16

ADA/USDT daily chart remains in a broader bearish structure. Cardano has fallen sharply from its 2025 high and has recently fluctuated within a narrow range around $0.16. This latest consolidation phase has slowed the decline, but buyers have yet to establish a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

ADA currently trades below the Bollinger Band's Mid-Track (approximately $0.1688). The upper track is near $0.1887, and the lower track is close to $0.1489, with prices in the lower half of the current fluctuation range. If it continues to exceed US$0.17, it will improve the short-term trend; if it falls again, the US$0.15 area may become the focus again.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 45.62, slightly below its moving average of 47.10. The reading suggests that momentum has recovered from extreme oversold conditions, but remains below the neutral level of 50. As a result, buyers are not yet firmly in control of daily trends.

This weak structure continues months of pressure on the ADA. Cardano fell below $0.20 in June, continuing a broader market downtrend. Previous technical analysis also pointed out that due to the difficulty of ADA establishing solid support, momentum indicators performed weakly.

Van Rossem hard fork failed to immediately push ADA higher

Cardano activated the van Rossem hard fork on July 18 to upgrade the main network to protocol version 11. This is the first time that the network has been fully approved and effective through the on-chain governance system.

This upgrade adds Plutus improvements and adjusts the cost model for smart contract execution, while also laying the technical foundation for the planned Dijkstra era and Ouroboros Leios, which aims to improve Cardano's transaction processing capabilities. The upgrade was officially launched after completing the Cardano governance process and the preliminary test network phase.

However, the ADA did not show a sustained response to this cyber incident. The token price remains at around the same level as before activation. This price behavior suggests that traders are still weighing overall market conditions, technical resistance and the impact of agreement upgrades.

Hard forks can improve underlying network technology, but will not automatically drive immediate demand for ADA. In terms of price movements, traders are currently focusing on whether upgraded activity can support stronger buying pressure over a longer period of time.

Mixed derivatives data keeps traders cautious

Derivatives indicators also show market divisions. The ADA funding rate recently turned positive, at approximately 0.0061%. A positive funding rate usually means that traders holding long positions pay a fee to short positions, indicating that the direction of the position has been tilted to a certain extent towards bullish.

However, the ADA long-space ratio is still close to 0.90. A reading below 1 means that short positions continue to exceed long positions. As a result, two indicators point in different directions: funding rates are improving, but derivatives traders remain cautious.

This mixed position followed a large amount of short interest before the hard fork. ADA was trading around $0.1628 before the upgrade, and traders added bearish positions even as large players were accumulating tokens. Liquidity is concentrated around US$0.16 and US$0.17, making these levels the key to the next move.

After the hard fork, the $0.16 area continues to serve as immediate support. If this level falls below, ADA may face the risk of testing the lower Bollinger Line of US$0.149. Holding that position would provide buyers with the opportunity to test again the resistance above the current range.

ADA needs to recover US$0.17 to look towards US$0.19

The first technical level that Cardano bulls need to overcome is the US$0.168 to US$0.17 region, which is highly coincident with the middle track of the Bollinger Band and previous liquidity regions. If the daily close breaks through this range, ADA will return to the top half of the recent trading channel.

Above this, the US$0.188 to US$0.19 area represents the next major resistance area. The upper track of the Bollinger Band is close to this level, so a breakthrough of US$0.19 will be a stronger signal of short-term structural changes. The RSI also needs to rise above 50 to show that buyer momentum is more solid.

Before these conditions emerged, the ADA was still in the consolidation phase of a larger downtrend. The van Rossem upgrade provides a new network catalyst, while the development of Leios brings another noteworthy technological milestone for Cardano. However, price confirmation still depends on whether buyers can overcome immediate resistance.