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BTC Benjamin Cowen: Bitcoin is trapped between "two fires"
In his latest technical analysis video, Benjamin Cowen describes the current situation in Bitcoin as "trapped between two fires." Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin is caught between technical levels, four-year cycle dynamics and global stock market trends, and shared his key predictions for the coming months.
Analysis pointed out that Bitcoin prices have been fluctuating between the bear market resistance band above and the 200-week moving average below, failing to form a clear directional breakthrough. Meanwhile, the seasonal strengthening window behind the July rally is expected to end in two to four weeks.
The analyst warned that, as in previous midterm election/cycle years (2018, 2022), July's gains could be reversed by weak markets in August and September. He added that the U.S. stock market (S & P 500) could see a 10% to 20% correction in August or September, which could serve as a catalyst for triggering the bottom of Bitcoin's final cycle.
Cowen described the current market structure as a less volatile version of the 2018 trend and predicted that a final liquidity event could occur in the last quarter of the year, resetting on-chain indicators to zero.
Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin is moving between two key levels on the technical chart, which suggests the market is moving towards a decision point. He noted that upward attempts were blocked by bear market resistance bands, while downward pullbacks were supported by the 200-week moving average, which he believed was consistent with the market's four-year cycle pattern.
Cowen pointed out that July's positive performance was consistent with previous cycle data, but suggested that the upward trend may not be permanent. He reviewed similar rallies in July 2018 and 2022, which were subsequently reversed in August and September, and therefore advised investors to remain cautious over the next two to four weeks.
According to analysis, a correction in traditional stock markets may be necessary for Bitcoin to hit its final bottom. Cowen predicts that if the S & P 500 retracts after peaking in August or September, this could drag down the price of Bitcoin and create a bottom of the cycle.
