Bitcoin prices are affected by CME futures: Is a breakthrough still expected?

Key insights

Bitcoin prices remain under pressure due to slowing CME futures activity.

Weak demand for spot BTC cryptocurrency continues to limit the possibility of a new rebound.

Market analysts said stronger buying is needed to push the market through the upside.

Bitcoin prices lack a clear direction, and weak futures activity and sluggish spot demand continue to drag down the market. Recent BTC cryptocurrency data shows traders are still waiting and see, with analysts saying stronger buying is needed to push the market into a new rally.

Bitcoin prices affected by weak CME futures activity

Bitcoin prices are still looking for direction as new data suggests weakening futures market activity. Data shared by Bitfinex showed that one of the most popular trading strategies this year has lost its appeal. The exchange said that carry trading for BTC cryptocurrencies is no longer as profitable as before. The basis, the difference between spot prices and CME futures prices, has remained below 5.5% this year. Last month, the basis fell below 2%. This is important because many traders exploit the difference between spot and futures prices to make gains. When the gap becomes too small, trading returns decrease and fewer traders participate. Bitfinex also said that open interest in CME bitcoin futures has dropped to the lowest level since the listing of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in early 2024. Open interest reflects the number of futures contracts that are still active. The lower the number usually means that fewer traders are opening new positions.

Bitcoin CME Futures Analysis

The exchange pointed out that funding rates have begun to rise. Even so, it said the basis needed to be widened for carry trades to become attractive again. The latest data suggests that many traders are still waiting and seeing rather than adding new positions. This leaves the market lacking the motivation it needs to move clearly in either direction.

Bitcoin prices are still waiting for strong buying

Another market review by analyst Darkfost showed that BTC cryptocurrency has been facing weak demand since the beginning of the year. According to the market analyst, the market has followed the same pattern for months.

Analysis of BTC cryptocurrency market dynamics

Sometimes, spot demand and futures demand decline at the same time. In other cases, futures trading briefly rebounded, while spot demand remained weak. Darkfost said this is similar to the situation during the last bear market. He explained that the strongest rallies usually occur when both spot buyers and futures traders buy at the same time, but that is not happening so far. Darkfost said that on July 26, 2026, the combined demand for spot and futures was-127,000 BTC. In his view, this is still too weak to support a new round of gains. He also said the market remained stable mainly because selling pressure eased. This does not mean that buyers are returning in large numbers. Instead, it suggests that fewer sellers are pushing prices lower.

BTC cryptocurrency prices remain stable, traders focus on demand

Bitcoin prices have been trading in the same range for months. Even if there are fewer sellers in the market, buyers fail to show enough power to push prices higher. Another signal that traders pay attention to is the CVD indicator of BTC cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency investor and data analyst CW said the indicator showed selling pressure after Bitcoin's recent price rise.

Bitcoin CVD Indicator Analysis

Selling orders came from almost all holder groups, except brown whales. Even so, the CW points out that there is a buying wall around $61,000, and there is still no large selling wall in the market. This suggests buyers are still willing to step in at lower prices, despite recent increases in selling. Currently, bitcoin prices remain stable, but the market still lacks the support needed for a breakthrough. Traders will pay close attention to spot buying and futures activity. If both start to improve at the same time, the outlook may change. Until then, the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within the current range as investors wait for clearer signs that buying interest has returned.