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Following原油价格因美伊紧张局势大幅上涨
周三，原油价格大幅攀升，美伊紧张局势再度引发市场对中东地区供应中断的担忧。截至格林尼治时间6时45分，布伦特原油期货上涨2.70美元，涨幅3.2%，至每桶86.79美元；西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨2.65美元，涨幅3.3%，至每桶81.91美元。
此轮上涨部分逆转了周二的大幅下跌，当时由于外交进展的希望，两大基准原油均跌至两周低点。然而，在美国和沙特阿拉伯对伊拉克境内受伊朗支持的武装组织发动打击，且美军称拦截了瞄准美军的伊朗导弹后，市场情绪发生转变。此外，伊朗拒绝了阿曼支持的关于霍尔木兹海峡监管的提议。
航运数据进一步加剧了供应担忧。7月28日，只有8艘商品船通过霍尔木兹海峡，而周三早些时候仅有一艘船通过。曼德海峡的交通量回升至一周高点，但胡塞武装对沙特航运的威胁仍使红海航线处于脆弱状态。
布伦特原油从关键需求区域反弹
提供的四小时布伦特图表显示，在最新价格飙升之前，该合约价格接近每桶83.01美元。分析指出，需求区域位于每桶80.69美元至82美元之间，其下边界与一个月均线及市场近期低点高度吻合。
此次反弹加强了短期看涨格局。从图表来看，布伦特原油需维持在每日200周期均线（约每桶83.17美元）上方，以保持上涨势头。下一个阻力位出现在每桶85.70美元和88.76美元附近，之后在每桶91.44美元左右存在更强阻力。
由于最新市场验证价格已突破每桶85.70美元，交易员可能关注布伦特原油能否将该区域转化为支撑位。跌破每桶83.17美元将削弱反弹势头，而跌破每桶80.69美元的需求区域则将恢复更广泛的看跌趋势。
WTI在向上突破后盘整
提供的美国原油现货图表显示，油价隔夜突破后，在每桶83.02美元附近盘整，形成收敛三角形形态。分析师描述该形态为下一次上涨前的潜在停顿。
明确突破三角形上边界（每桶83至84美元附近）将强化看涨观点，并可能使每桶86美元上方的未填补价格缺口成为焦点。与此同时，失去每桶82.50美元附近的支撑将削弱该形态，下一个关注区域为每桶81.20美元。
动能指标仍为正值，但自初始飙升以来有所降温。图表的MACD指标保持在零轴上方，而相对强弱指数位于中性区域附近，表明WTI尚未进入超买状态。
库存数据可能推动下一步走势
Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by about 3.3 million barrels last week. Gasoline inventories increased by 918,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 355,000 barrels. A Reuters survey forecast a decline in crude oil inventories by 1.3 million barrels, while another forecast showed an increase of 700,000 barrels.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release official data at 10:30 a.m. ET. A larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories may support oil prices; while an increase in crude oil and fuel inventories may limit gains.
OPEC + will increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August and meet again on August 2. Reuters reported that the organization may approve a similar increase in production in September and then suspend further increases in production in October, but the oil-producing countries have not yet made a final decision.
