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BTC Bitcoin price analysis: Short-selling sentiment continues, but the next trend of BTC depends on the Federal Reserve
Although Bitcoin successfully stabilized above key support areas, it is still suppressed below key resistance levels in a higher time frame. While the overall trend remains bearish, the latest attempt to rebound has been accompanied by a significant rise in exchange whale ratios, suggesting that large players are becoming increasingly active.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart
At the daily level, BTC continues to trade below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are in the approximately US$68,000 and US$72,000 regions respectively. These bearish rankings of moving averages confirm that sellers are still in control of the overall trend.
Following a sharp decline in early June, Bitcoin entered a long consolidation period between the US$58,000 support area and the US$66,000 resistance area. After multiple failed attempts to regain the supply area near $66,000, the price is currently hovering around $64,000.
The $66,000 level represents the first major resistance level, while the stronger resistance level is around $74,000, slightly above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Continuing to break through these levels will improve medium-term prospects and could open up space into the $82,000 resistance area.
On the downside, if the market hits a blue demand area near $60,000 in the next few weeks, buyers are likely to be on the defensive. After falling below that level, the next major support level is around $54,000. As long as BTC remains above US$60,000, the current consolidation structure remains intact, but the inability to recover US$66,000 makes the overall bias cautious.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin rebounded after clearing liquidity below the US$63,000 support area. Buyers actively stepped in after this trend and pushed prices back above that level.
Prices are currently trying to regain the previous rising channel after falling below the lower boundary of the channel. Although the rebound was constructive, BTC still faces direct resistance between US$65,000 and US$66,000, highlighted by nearby supply areas.
Successfully breaking this resistance level could trigger another attempt to move towards the upper boundary of a larger range around $67,000. However, repeated rejections from the region will strengthen the current sideways structure and increase the possibility of stepping back on the $63,000 support level again.
Momentum has also improved slightly, with the RSI recovering to near the 50 mark, but buyers still need stronger follow-up forces to decisively shift the short-term market structure in their favor.
On-chain analysis
The exchange whale ratio EMA has begun to rise sharply after several weeks of relatively sluggish levels. The indicator measures inflows from the largest exchanges as a proportion of total inflows, with higher readings generally indicating that large holders are becoming more active.
Historically, increased whale activity has often preceded increased volatility, especially as prices approach important technical levels. The latest growth comes as Bitcoin struggles below major resistance levels, suggesting that large market participants may be laying out around this consolidation phase.
If the exchange whale ratio continues to rise while BTC remains below $66,000, then the risk of a new round of distribution and further downward exploration may increase. Conversely, if prices manage to break through resistance despite active whale activity, it indicates that demand is absorbing greater sell-side traffic, which could pave the way for a stronger rally toward higher resistance areas.
