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XRP Cryptocurrency analysis platform Sanitation releases key signals to evaluate Bitcoin and altcoin markets
Cryptocurrency analysis platform Sanitation combines recent market dynamics and on-chain data in its latest analysis to reveal important signals about Bitcoin and altcoin markets.
According to Sand analysts, Bitcoin's 365-day MVRV (market value to realized value ratio) has dropped to-26%, which means that long-term investors are facing significant losses. Historically, this level often marks the formation of a market bottom and provides long-term buying opportunities.
When the MVRV data released by Sanitation is further refined, it can be found that investors holding Bitcoin have lost an average of about 26% in the past year. Looking back at historical cycles (such as the bear market bottom in 2018 and the March 2020 plunge), MVRV falling into such a deep negative range usually corresponds to a period when long-term risks are reduced and bottom-detection signals are strengthened. In contrast, the short-term 30-day MVRV hovers near the break-even point (+1.1%). Analysts added that although there are no clear directional signals in the short term, from a one-year perspective, the current situation is the bottom area before the start of the bull market cycle.
On-chain data shows behavioral differentiation among wallet holders of different sizes
On-chain data reveals significant differences in investor behavior of different wallet sizes. Whale Wallet, which holds 10 to 10,000 BTC, continues to increase its holdings, adding approximately 18,500 BTC in the past 10 days. On the other hand, smaller wallet holders (retail investors) are still buying on dips; however, analysts warn that this high buying enthusiasm on the retail side may occasionally trigger the risk of a final "wash" or correction in the market.
The altcoin market is divided
Ethereum's 365-day MVRV hovers around-33%, but due to a rebound in the past month and overly optimistic investor sentiment on social media, there is a risk of a correction in the short term. XRP is in the oversold range, with its 30-day MVRV of-57.5% and 365-day MVRV of-45.5%, which indicates a strong rebound in the medium to long term. Solana's social media discussion volume and optimism are rising, while Cardano's investor sentiment is relatively calm.
The future direction of Bitcoin and altcoins depends not only on on-chain indicators, but also on macroeconomic and legal developments. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and subsequent policies have increased market volatility expectations, while uncertainty about the process of the Clarification Act in the U.S. Congress continues to put pressure on prices.
* This article does not constitute investment advice.
