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ETH Ethereum Price Analysis: Can ETH break through the upper moving average resistance?
Daily Chart Analysis
Ethereum continues to stabilize after a sharp correction from its annual high, as buyers try to regain control after breaking through the long-term decline channel. Although the rebound in prices has improved the short-term outlook, there are still multiple key resistance levels above ETH that must be regained before a broader trend reversal is confirmed.
Judging from the daily chart, ETH is currently consolidating near the upper boundary of the wider downtrend channel, which has been guiding prices downward for several months. Although buyers have successfully pushed the price back to about $1900, the asset is still trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages-which currently converge around $1950 and $2050 respectively. This suggests that despite the recent rebound, the broader market structure remains empty.
The latest rise also puts prices directly into the important horizontal resistance intersection of around $1900 to $2000. This is the first major obstacle facing buyers. If this area can be successfully broken through, it may pave the way to the next resistance area of approximately $2400. On the downside, the key demand area of US$1500 is still crucial to the bottom of ETH.
The RSI indicator has rebounded to near the neutral 50 level after previously hitting the oversold area, indicating that short momentum has weakened. However, momentum has not yet decisively shifted towards buyers, making the response near current resistance particularly critical.
4-hour plot analysis
In a 4-hour time frame, Ethereum recently completed a breakthrough into the short-term downtrend channel, a pattern that usually signals weakening selling pressure and a continuation of potential bullish sentiment. The breakthrough has brought prices back above the immediate support zone of about $1850, which is now serving as the first line of defense for buyers.
ETH is currently consolidating below the $2100 resistance zone. The recent rally has kept prices in the top half of a larger upward channel that has formed since early June, signaling buyers continue to defend higher lows.
If the breakthrough in the short-term downtrend channel is still valid, Ethereum may once again try to hit the upper boundary of the larger uptrend channel (around the psychological threshold of $2000). A decisive break through this level may increase bullish momentum and expose higher resistance around $2100.
Conversely, losing the $1850 support level will weaken the short-term bullish structure and may trigger prices to fall again towards the $1750 demand area. If it breaks below this zone, it will negate the recent rise and turn momentum back to the bearish side.
On-chain data analysis
The active address chart shows that despite the recent price rebound, Ethereum network activity is still sluggish. After falling sharply from a surge earlier this year, daily active addresses have stabilized in the range of about 400,000, and the 30-day index moving average continues to decline.
This divergence between activity and price suggests that the latest price rebound has not yet been accompanied by a substantial improvement in underlying network engagement. Historically, continued bullish periods have often been accompanied by expansion of user activity, while weak address growth has often reflected cautious market participation.
While the stabilization of active addresses may indicate that web activity is starting to bottom out, stronger growth in on-chain engagement will provide additional confirmation of the current recovery, indicating that it is supported by improved fundamentals, rather than just technical buying. Until then, Ethereum's recovery seemed constructive, but there was still a lack of extensive on-chain confirmation.
