Bitcoin price analysis: ETF funds return, BTC regains its footing at US$77,000

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比特币在经历两日大幅抛售后的强劲反弹

在经历连续两天的剧烈抛售之后，比特币价格已回升至77,000美元上方。这一反弹得益于美国现货比特币ETF资金流入的回归，以及更广泛风险市场情绪的好转。目前，BTC的交易价格徘徊在77,000美元高位区域，从本周早些时候承压的75,000至76,000美元区间强势反弹。

当前的比特币价格分析焦点在于：此次反弹是能够演变为持续的复苏，还是仅仅代表2026年波动市场中的一次短暂回抽。尽管ETF需求有所改善，但近几日的资金流向仍为负值；与此同时，华盛顿的政治动态继续为比特币带来下行冲击与长期催化剂。

ETF资金流出后重现净流入

机构需求在9月17日显著改善，美国现货比特币ETF录得1.595亿美元的净流入。贝莱德（BlackRock）旗下的iShares比特币信托基金贡献了大部分恢复力量，新增资金达1.837亿美元；而富达（Fidelity）的FBTC流失了1,660万美元，VanEck的HODL则遭遇了760万美元的赎回。

这一正向交易日紧随两个艰难的交易日后出现。9月15日和9月16日，比特币ETF分别记录了4.504亿美元和2.959亿美元的净流出，这意味着在这两个交易日内，约有7.463亿美元的资金离开了这些基金。即便在周三出现反弹后，这三天的总净流出额仍约为5.868亿美元。

Therefore, the latest capital inflows are seen more as a signal of market stability than confirmation of the re-establishment of institutional buying trends. BlackRock's contribution suggests that demand returns quickly as BTC prices move towards the mid-to-low range of $75,000, but several consecutive positive trading days are still needed to provide stronger evidence that investors are rebuilding their positions.

The comparison with Ethereum is also worth noting. On September 17, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately $39.3 million, indicating that demand for renewed is mainly concentrated on Bitcoin rather than reflecting a broad return to cryptocurrency investment products.

Bitcoin's rebound echoes earlier pullback cycles

Bitcoin's latest rebound comes after another round of sharp corrections, a pattern that has been repeated throughout its history. Looking back at the historical price trend of Bitcoin, we can see that the main rising market is often interrupted by deep retractions before the medium-and long-term trend becomes clear.

The 2025 cycle provides the closest comparison case in the near future. Bitcoin climbed above $100,000 at the beginning of the year, then fell to the mid-range of $75,000, and then recovered strongly, hitting a record high of more than $126,000 in October. However, that rally eventually reversed, with BTC starting below $90,000 in 2026 and falling as low as about $60,000 in February.

这种比较并不意味着当前的下跌会产生相同的结果。在主要周期峰值之后，比特币也曾经历过漫长的熊市，包括2014-2015年的低迷期以及2021年高点后的下跌。历史记录显示，单纯的急剧修正并不能一致地指明长期的顶部或持久的底部。

对于当前的局势，价格确认比历史重复更具参考价值。在将最新反弹视为超越短期稳定的迹象之前，比特币需要在近期的破位区域上方维持其复苏态势。