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ETH Ethereum Price Analysis: After ETH regains key support, is US$2000 the next target?
Ethereum has rebounded significantly since its June low, regaining an important area of resistance while testing a major downtrend line in a higher time frame. Although recent gains have strengthened short-term sentiment, ETH remains close to a set of technical obstacles that will determine whether the rally continues above $2000 or whether it will move into another round of adjustment.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
Over the daily time frame, ETH has been trading in a wide declining channel that defines price movements over the past few months. The recent rebound from the $1500 demand area has allowed the asset to regain its $1800 support area.
Prices are currently facing breaking through the upper edge of the channel, followed by a downward 100-day moving average near $2000. This intersection area has attracted selling pressure, indicating that sellers are still active near this technical obstacle.
The next major resistance is between $2000 and $2200, with the 200-day moving average also converging here from above. If it is confirmed to break through the channel and continue to stand above $2200, it will mean a major structural shift and may open up space for a higher rebound target.
On the downside, the recently recovered US$1800 area now serves as the first key support. Losing this level would once again expose a larger area of demand near $1500, which previously triggered recent bullish reversals.
ETH/USDT 4-hour chart
The lower time frame suggests a stronger bullish structure. After ETH formed a clear W bottom around $1500, it moved upwards in a clear rising channel and continued to hit higher highs and higher lows throughout the rebound process.
The recent rally pushed prices above the $1800 resistance zone before touching the upper edge of the channel near $1950. However, sellers defended in this area, causing prices to fall slightly from local highs.
As long as ETH remains above the $1800 breakthrough zone, the current correction is more consistent with profit-taking characteristics than confirming a trend reversal. Maintaining this support could allow buyers to try again to hit the main daily resistance group ($2,000-$2,200 range).
On the contrary, a decisive fall below US$1800 will weaken the short-term structure and may trigger a deeper correction, testing the intermediate support around US$1720, and may even fall to the order block area around US$1,620 - 1,640, where buyers have previously intervened.
On-chain analysis
Exchange reserve charts continue to paint a constructive long-term picture. Ethereum reserves held by centralized exchanges continue to decline and have now dropped to approximately 15.3 million ETH, which is arguably the lowest level in the past few years.
A continued decline in exchange balances usually indicates that investors are withdrawing tokens into self-custody or long-term storage rather than preparing to sell them immediately. This reduces the quantity readily available on exchanges and could provide a supportive background for prices if demand continues to recover.
Although a decline in exchange reserves does not guarantee an immediate increase in prices, the continued decline in available supply complements the improvement of the technical structure. If ETH successfully breaks through the upper resistance in the US$2,000 - 2,200 range while the exchange balance maintains its current downward trend, the overall rebound may gain additional momentum. On the contrary, even if the chain background is favorable, failure to break through the resistance of a higher time frame may still lead to a short-term correction.
