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ETH Key Points
On Friday, the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$70.26 million, ending five consecutive days of capital inflows.
Weekly performance remained positive, with a net inflow of Ethereum ETF of US$103.9 million, achieving positive growth for the third consecutive week.
The ETH/BTC ratio fell to 0.028, the lowest level since August last year.
Blockchain data shows that ETH's current price is below its collective cost benchmark of US$2304, a condition that typically consumes selling pressure.
Key floor indicators, such as MVRV and exchange deposit volumes, have not yet reached the extreme thresholds that typically mark a clear price bottom.
On-chain evidence for the bottom shape of Ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) closed at US$1837 this week, with a net outflow of US$70.26 million from the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF on Friday (July 25). This marked the end of five consecutive days of net inflows (cumulative US$211.25 million) from July 17 to July 24.
Although Friday's data reversed, broader weekly data remained optimistic, with cumulative net inflows of Ethereum ETF of US$103.9 million. This is the third consecutive week that a net inflow of funds has been achieved. Throughout July, the total cumulative net inflow of Ethereum ETF reached US$337.74 million.
Bitcoin ETF also showed a similar trend, with a net outflow of US$240.08 million on Friday, ending seven consecutive days of net inflows. BTC prices were just below $64,000, falling back from Tuesday's weekly high of $66,892.
Market analyst Ted commented on social media that ETH remains above key support levels. He pointed out that Ethereum shows a strong trend relative to Bitcoin and believes that the current upward momentum may not have been exhausted.
ETH fell sharply from the all-time high of US$4946 set last year, falling to US$1400 in June before stabilizing and recovering. The current price of the cryptocurrency is approximately 17% lower than its realized price (the average on-chain holding cost of all ETH tokens) of US$2304.
On-chain data: The bottom signal is beginning to appear
The CryptoQuant analysis report released on Thursday pointed out that Ethereum shows initial signs of a market bottom, but has not yet met all the conditions necessary to confirm a continued upward trend.
Source: CryptoQuant
The ETH/BTC ratio has shrunk to 0.028, the lowest level since August last year. Although this weak performance relative to Bitcoin has historically often heralded a major altcoin market that will follow, market observers emphasize that more confirmation signals are still needed.
The MVRV ratio of ETH/BTC has dropped from 0.95 in August last year to approximately 0.65. According to CryptoQuant's research, a reliable bottom usually occurs when this indicator breaks below 0.45, a threshold that occurred in 2019-20 and early 2025.
Key technology prices of ETH
Ethereum is currently challenging its 20-day exponential moving average ($1839) and 50-day exponential moving average ($1831). A clear break below these technical indicators could expose support areas around $1806, followed by $1741.
In the past 24 hours, ETH has liquidated approximately US$67.79 million, of which long positions accounted for US$44.18 million.
However, one indicator is currently suggesting a bottom is forming. The relative spot trading volume of ETH/BTC has shrunk to about 0.5 from 1.75 in August, a threshold that historically coincides with the bottom of the Ethereum price.
Institutional demand for ETFs also showed signs of change. The ETH/BTC ETF holding ratio climbed to 0.13 in July after falling to 0.115 in June.
