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BTC Bitcoin faces setbacks and opportunities in the financial landscape
Recently, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below US$77,000, mainly due to the unexpected rise in the U.S. producer price index and rising market expectations of interest rate hikes. Bitcoin prices have fallen about 2% in the past 24 hours, a trend that coincides with a third consecutive day of net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
What are the reasons for the outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETF?
According to data from Farside Investors, as of September 10, Bitcoin ETFs had a total of US$282.7 million in major divestments, following an outflow of approximately US$120 million the day before. Among them, the ARKB fund jointly launched by Ark Invest and 21Shares led the decline, with capital outflows reaching US$164.3 million. Other significant funding reductions included Grayscale's GBTC fund and Fidelity's FBTC fund, which withdrew $36.4 million and $33.6 million respectively.
Pressure from inflation data and Fed expectations
The producer price index reached 5.4%, higher than the expected 5.1%, fueling speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates at its September 15 - 16 meeting. Affected by this, the probability of interest rate futures betting on interest rate hikes soared to nearly 70%, a significant jump from the 50% probability estimated two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond hit a 19-year high, with the 10-year and 2-year yields climbing to above 5% and 4.5% respectively. The rise in crude oil prices has also exacerbated ongoing inflationary pressures, which not only reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, but also increases the cost of holding leveraged positions.
Analyst Lewis Huang emphasized: "US$76,270 is a key technical support level." Since August, bitcoin prices have remained above the key level of $76,270 in an upward trend. Currently, the market's focus is turning to the upcoming release of U.S. consumer price index data. The overall inflation rate is expected to increase by 3.4% year-on-year, and the core inflation rate is 2.4%.
The ongoing debate over regulatory clarity in the United States remains the focus of the market, directly affecting market confidence. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong maintains a long-term bullish view that he believes Bitcoin has passed the bottom of the cycle. As the next halving approaches, Armstrong predicts that price increases could last for up to two years. He reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin would reach $400,000 by 2030, noting that regulatory developments could provide a clearer path for the market to evolve. Although Bitcoin remains below all-time highs, recent data shows it has risen 23% since its August low, highlighting the key impact of inflation statistics, Fed decisions and ETF fund flows on price movements.
