Crude oil exceeded US$105, the probability of a Federal Reserve raising interest rates rose to 62%,

Summary

ETF demand remains strong, and key technical levels have attracted much attention. Affected by crude oil prices exceeding $105 and rising U.S. Treasury yields, Ethereum prices fell about 4% to around $2,420. August producer price index (PPI) data showed a month-on-month growth of 0.4%, and an annual inflation rate of 5.4%, further pushing expectations for interest rate hikes. Forecast markets show that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates next week is 62%. Despite falling prices, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF attracted a net inflow of $34.75 million on Wednesday. Currently, Ethereum is testing the key support level of the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near US$2,400 - 2,405.

Key technical indicators focus

Ethereum prices have fallen nearly 4% in the past 24 hours to near $2,420, threatening the key $2,400 support level, as crude oil prices topped $105 and U.S. Treasury yields rose. The digital asset hit a high of $2,512 on September 10, and short momentum then dominated.

This downward trend is consistent with a significant rebound in the energy market. Brent crude exceeded the US$105 per barrel mark and WTI crude also exceeded the US$100 mark, driven mainly by concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in the Middle East. At the same time, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed towards 4.9%.

High oil prices usually maintain inflationary pressures. This dynamic, coupled with rising yields, has prompted investors to reduce their exposure to risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies. Economic data further exacerbated bearish sentiment. The producer price index, a measure of final demand, rose 0.4% month-on-month in August. On a year-on-year basis, PPI inflation accelerated from 4.8% in the previous period to 5.4%, of which energy costs contributed a 4.2% increase.

$ETH has been fluctuating in the range of $2,450 to $2,550 for several weeks.

To usher in the next round of gains, Ethereum needs to close its weekly price firmly above $2,550.

Market analyst Ted Pillows pointed out on Platform X that Ethereum has been consolidating in the $2,450 to $2,550 corridor for several weeks. According to its assessment, ETH needs the weekly closing price to exceed US$2,550 to trigger the next round of upward movement.

ETF demand remains constructive

U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net positive inflow of US$34.75 million on Wednesday despite weak prices. BlackRock backed the pledge of ETHB products performed outstandingly, receiving US$22.94 million in funding, while ETHA contributed an additional US$9.71 million.

Previously, there was a withdrawal of US$24.29 million on September 8, and a small inflow of US$2.1 million on September 9. Cumulative accumulation this week was $218.4 million, slowing down from the annual peak of $824 million set the previous week.

Financial markets are increasingly looking forward to a tighter monetary policy environment. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates during its September 15-16 policy meeting is 62%, and this probability will rise to 71% by October.

Individual investors sold 307,000 ETH in the past week, far exceeding the 82,000 ETH accumulated at Whale Address. Ethereum experienced a mandatory liquidation of $88 million in 24 hours, of which long positions accounted for $73.2 million.

Key technical points focus

Ethereum continues to trade above its 20-, 50-, 100-and 200-day exponential moving averages. The 20th EMA is located near US$2,404, establishing the US$2,400 - 2,405 region as the main support area for current observation. If the daily close confirms a break below $2,400, the next downside target will be the $2,350 - 2,360 range. Further weakness could expose the $2,300 level, testing the 50-day EMA near $2,222.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently close to 59, indicating a slight bullish trend, but momentum is weakening. The Chaikin oscillator has fallen below the zero line, marking a weakening of accumulated pressure after the breakout rebound in August.

In a rising scenario, initial resistance appears at $2,545, followed by $2,626 and $2,787. Before this pullback, Ethereum achieved a gain of about 37% in 10 days and reached a cyclical high of $2,564.