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BTC 比特币与传统市场关系的显著转变
在短短几周内，比特币与传统市场的关系发生了剧烈变化。Santiment数据显示，比特币与股票、美元甚至黄金的相关性均已减弱。其中，与黄金的关系尤为引人关注，因为这两种资产近期曾同步波动，但如今比特币似乎已完全脱离主要参照资产，展现出独立的交易走势。
比特币实现独立脱钩
Santiment的分析指出，比特币与包括贵金属和美国股市在内的主要资产的相关性出现断裂，表明加密货币不再紧密跟随任何单一资产波动。这一重大转变在过去几天内逐渐显现：在CLARITY法案投票失败后，比特币从75,000美元的低位反弹，并迅速飙升至87,000美元以上的数月高点。
这种转变之所以引人注目，是因为几周前主导市场的叙事恰恰相反。据报道，早在9月初，比特币与黄金的90天相关性首次攀升至六年来的0.50以上。与此同时，比特币与纳斯达克100指数的相关性则降至0.30-0.33区间，这促使投资者认为，他们正将比特币视为一种稀缺的货币对冲工具，而非高贝塔值的科技资产。
At the time, Bitcoin and gold both benefited and rose sharply as market concerns about government debt, deficits and currency devaluation resurfaced, while the stock market struggled to keep up, so this interpretation was quite reasonable. However, the relationship proved to be far less lasting than it initially seemed. Although gold prices were basically flat, Bitcoin saw significant gains.
Since August 18, the market value of Bitcoin has increased by 36.0%, in sharp contrast to the 0.8% increase in the S & P 500 index and the-1.5% performance of gold over the same period. This breakthrough started with small holders holding between 0.1 and 10 bitcoins...
The speed at which independent trading logic
reverses may be more important than the absolute correlation value. Just three weeks ago, the strengthening of Bitcoin's relationship with gold was one of the high-profile developments in macro markets. However, this week's data complicates the narrative: Bitcoin continues to rise as precious metals fall back from recent highs, while U.S. stocks have also embarked on their own trajectory.
Previously, Bitcoin absorbed two major negative events that occurred last week-the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the setback of the CLARITY Act, and then recovered above $87,000.
But this does not mean that Bitcoin has been permanently decoupled from macro markets. Its historical correlation has fluctuated many times with changes in liquidity, monetary policy and investor positions. But current data shows that Bitcoin no longer behaves as "digital gold", leveraged technology stocks or anti-dollar transactions, but has embarked on an independent path.
