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比特币触及8个月高点，山寨币持有者仍陷亏损，为何？

2026-09-23 18:20:00

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Crypto altcoin news: Why most altcoin holders are still losing money

The latest crypto altcoin news reveals a surprising figure. Despite the strong rebound in the market, among the top 500 altcoins, the median token has less than 25% of profitable circulation. This means that even if Bitcoin stands comfortably above $86,000 and has a total market value of close to $2.96 trillion, most altcoin holders are still losing money.

On-chain data shows that deep losses persist

The on-chain analysis released by GlassNode on September 22 shows that in the heat map of the top 500 altcoins, the red loss area dominates. The data points out that the market is far from reaching its historical peak pattern, as global peaks typically occur only when most of the token supply across the market is in a deeply profitable state.

The key data in the

report are as follows:

Median of the top 500 altcoins: Less than 25% of the supply is profitable.
Bitcoin profitable supply: is about 66% to 69%, which is higher than altcoins, but well below the fanatic level of 90%-95%.
Profitability of the top 100 altcoins: Currently, only about 36 token holders are generally profitable.
Mid-cap altcoins: Many mid-cap altcoins are still mired in losses, with some tokens falling nearly 74% in two years.

Source: research.glassnode.com

比特币价格今日引领复苏，而山寨币表现滞后

比特币今日价格位于86,390美元附近，较2026年中期的58,000至75,000美元低点大幅回升。该币种在从2025年10月近126,000美元的历史高点回调约30%后，重新收复了关键技术位。

截至9月23日的更广泛市场快照（来自CoinMarketCap）：

加密货币总市值：2.96万亿美元，上涨1.6%。
CMC20指数：181.84美元，上涨1.52%。
比特币主导地位：58.9%，上周为59.0%。
以太坊主导地位：11.4%，当日上涨0.1%。
除BTC外的山寨币市值：约1.17万亿至1.19万亿美元。
恐惧与贪婪指数：77，处于“贪婪”区间。
山寨币季节指数：100分中的50分，仍偏向“比特币季节”。

来源：Altcoin Season Index

2026年，比特币的主导地位总体保持稳定，介于6月的年度低点57.3%和5月的年度高点61.1%之间。这一狭窄的波动区间表明，即便比特币价格复苏势头良好，资金尚未做出向山寨币的决定性转移。

来源：Trading View

资金显然集中在比特币和一些主要代币上。在2025年见顶后，山寨币经历了更长时间、更剧烈的抛售压力，许多持有者在反弹使其回到盈亏平衡点附近时立即卖出，从而限制了利润水平。

2026年9月顶级山寨币：哪些币种领涨

尽管中位数代币普遍亏损，但表现突出的币种在90天内实现了巨大涨幅。CoinMarketCap图表中的一些最强 mover 包括：

PONS：上涨6,807%
USELESS：上涨354.71%
ZEC (Zcash)：上涨290.18%
UNI：上涨251.67%
PUMP：上涨238.59%
ARB：上涨220.98%

过去一天内的热门币种也显示出剧烈的一日变动，其中BCH以近35%的涨幅位居前列，价格接近357.96美元，同时UNI、NEON、B3和BSV也录得涨幅。这些局部强势迹象表明，资金轮动已经开始，尽管尚未在整个山寨币市场扩散。

山寨币最新动态：牛市信号但未现全面狂热

几个信号指向早期牛市阶段，而非全面的2026年山寨币季节。

比特币已收复其365日均线及长期成本基准水平。根据Cryptoquant数据，这种模式出现在2019年和2023年此前牛市启动初期。

当前周期看起来比过去更为温和。最近的回撤幅度接近50-55%，而不是早期熊市阶段常见的70-80%跌幅，这在一定程度上得益于稳定的ETF需求和机构参与度。

这对2026年山寨币周期下一阶段意味着什么

低的山寨币盈利能力听起来可能令人沮丧，但实际上它指出了进一步增长的空间，而非行情的终结。市场很少在大多数持有者仍处于亏损状态时见顶。如果比特币主导地位开始有意义地跌破当前的58.9%水平，那将是资金大规模轮换进入山寨币的第一个真正信号。目前，随着比特币在86,000–87,000美元附近保持强势， broader 山寨币市场可能仍有其最强的一段行情在未来，而非在过去。

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