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BTC Bitwise首席投资官马特·侯根：比特币或重演黄金ETF启动后的爆发式增长，市值有望达30万亿美元
Bitwise首席投资官马特·侯根（Matt Hougan）认为，比特币有可能复制黄金在首个交易所交易基金（ETF）推出后的戏剧性增长轨迹，最终实现30万亿美元的市值。在最近的一次访谈中，侯根指出，2004年首只黄金ETF问世时，黄金的估值仅为2万亿至2.5万亿美元。随后，通过机构投资者的广泛采用，该资产规模大幅扩张至约30万亿美元。这一增长发生在近期因政府债务问题而加剧市场关注之前。
随着比特币ETF的推出，加密货币的整体市值约为2万亿美元。侯根认为，比特币有望遵循类似的发展路径，攀升至30万亿美元的规模，这将带来极具吸引力的单币价格水平。他强调，这一进程并非一帆风顺，剧烈的波动——包括急剧上涨与下跌——将是不可避免的。
侯根表示，比特币最大的风险并非来自协议本身的技术缺陷或量子计算的威胁，而是源于投资者自身能否在牛市和熊市周期中保持坚定的信念。他观察到，许多参与者在过去的市场周期中，因过度疲劳或高杠杆操作而遭受损失。尽管面临这些挑战，侯根仍认为该资产具有巨大的、甚至可能改变人生的上行潜力，并预计这一增长过程将历时约十年。
“I believe those who don’t believe that Bitcoin can replicate the same patterns… We launched an ETF when its market value was around $2 trillion. I believe it has every possibility of repeating the success of gold in the past, reaching a value of $30 trillion, thereby creating a significant target price level.” Hou Gen said.
Hou Gen also mentioned that he has set aside some funds for a ten-year investment horizon. He emphasized that this isn’t a financial advice. He pointed out that the future outcomes are likely to reward investors who stick to long-term holding strategies.
