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BTC Bitcoin once again failed to break through the US$65,000 range, trading prices approached US$63,900, causing the market to be compressed near the chain's cost base level, while spot participation fell to its lowest point in years. Bitcoin was recently quoted at US$63,859, with an intraday range of US$63,267 to US$64,298. Prices are still about 49% below the all-time high of more than $126,000 set in October 2025, and only about 9% above the June 30 low of around $58,535.
Bitcoin is traded between US$63,000 and US$68,700 cost bases
Bitcoin is currently almost directly at its median realized price of US$63,000, while the short-term holder cost base is significantly higher at US$68,700. Glassnode's latest market analysis found that spot trading volumes have fallen to their lowest level since 2019, while exchange activity remains sluggish. Earnings supply has also moved towards levels related to previous bear market bottoms, despite repeated attempts to rally failed to maintain investors above break-even levels. Mining economics provides another reference point. Estimates of Bitcoin production costs vary significantly depending on methods, with recent models setting breakeven levels at around $62,000 to more than $75,000. As a result, prices are currently within a broad pressure range for miners, rather than a clear bottom for a single production cost. A break below $63,000 would bring back the spotlight near the June low of $58,500. The stronger rebound level remains near $68,700, where recent gains have encountered holder supply many times.
Predicts that the market is divided on Bitcoin recovery
Forecasting markets remain deeply divided on how far the current range can extend. Polymarket traders are currently pricing Bitcoin with approximately 69% probability of hitting US$70,000 by the end of 2026, while the probability of US$75,000 is close to 51%, and US$80,000 is close to 32%. The probability of returning to $100,000 is only about 9%. Downtrend contracts are also at high levels. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 by nearly 79% before the end of the year, fell below $50,000 by nearly 35%, and fell below $35,000 by nearly 8%. These are market implied prices that are related to specific settlement rules rather than forecasts. Kalshi is equally cautious, giving a roughly 41% probability that Bitcoin will trade below $60,000 in August, while the probability that it will regain trading at $100,000 before 2027 is only 12%.
ETF inflows have not yet triggered a breakthrough
Institutional inflows improved, but failed to produce sustained price expansion. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF absorbed approximately $854 million between August 3 and August 7, ending all five trading days with net inflows. This occurred after the market weakened in July, when Polymarket traders initially believed that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July was only 21%. Bitcoin is still between the median realized price of $63,000 and the short-term holder cost base of $68,700, and if the current range is broken, near the June low of $58,500 will remain the main downside level.
