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Following
XRP Core Points
Analyst Egrag Crypto predicts that if XRP's market value reaches US$500 billion, its price could exceed US$7, while slower custody releases will limit supply.
The logarithmic chart used by the analyst shows that the US$500 billion XRP valuation is close to the upper trajectory of its long-term channel forecast structure.
Ripple will re-host unlocked XRPs, which means that monthly releases will not automatically increase the circulation supply, nor will it create immediate market dilution pressure.
XRP Price Forecast: Market Value of US$500 billion corresponds to more than US$7
Cryptocurrency analyst Egrag Crypto calculates that with a market value of US$500 billion, XRP may trade above US$7 within three years. According to him, the estimate takes into account Ripple's custody release and its potential impact on XRP circulation supply.
XRP currently has approximately 62.74 billion tokens in circulation. If the market value reaches US$500 billion, the estimated price will be approximately US$7.97. However, Ripple's custody releases may increase the circulation supply, and the net release rate adopted by Egrag Crypto is approximately 268 million XRPs per month.
If this rate continues until June 2029, approximately 9.1 billion XRPs will be added, increasing the circulation supply to approximately 71.9 billion tokens. The market value of $500 billion divided by 71.9 billion XRPs yields a price of approximately $6.96; a lower release could put the XRP price above $7. As a result, Egrag set a price range of $6.85 to $7.20, with the upper limit estimated to require a lower-than-expected net release.
XRP Market Value Chart: US$500 Billion Close to the Upper Channel
Egrag Crypto supports its calculations with a logarithmic chart that tracks the market value of XRP on a two-week K-line. The two rising yellow trend lines form a broad channel that covers XRP's valuation performance over multiple cryptocurrency market cycles.
Let's do the math-including the amount of managed releases. Current circulation supply: approximately 62.74 billion XRPs. If we calculate from Ripple's recent monthly net release rate of approximately 268 million XRPs to June 2029:
Increase supply: approximately 9.1 billion XRPs
At the time point recorded in the chart, the market value of XRP is approximately US$88.76 billion. Its K-line rose 42.71% in the latest two weeks, pushing its valuation above US$106 billion, and then selling took back some of the gains. In addition, XRP's market capitalisation remains above the major moving average shown on the chart. The upper track trend line is close to the US$400 billion to US$500 billion region near the June 2029 forecast point.
Therefore, reaching US$500 billion would bring XRP's valuation close to the upper trajectory of the analyst's long-term market structure. Starting from US$88.76 billion, XRP will need an increase of approximately 5.6 times to reach the forecast valuation of US$500 billion. At the same time, the downward trajectory of the channel points to lower valuations, showing a wide range between potential market outcomes.
Ripple escrow release will determine the final price of XRP.
Ripple's escrow system is important because unlocked tokens do not automatically enter XRP's circulating supply. Ripple can re-custody unused XRPs, keep them in controlled accounts, or allocate them through institutional arrangements.
Therefore, the planned 1 billion XRP unlocks does not mean that 1 billion tokens will immediately enter the public market. The net release provides a clearer measure because it tracks the XRP actually flowing out of Ripple's control range.
In addition, the market value represents the circulating supply multiplied by the current price of XRP on a cryptocurrency exchange. It does not measure the exact amount of capital invested directly in the asset.
Egrag Crypto's calculations show that if supply growth by June 2029 falls below the core forecast, XRP prices will be higher than $7. However, this result requires a valuation of $500 billion and enough demand to absorb the XRP released into circulation through custody.
